648
FXUS61 KCAR 030704
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
204 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER HUDSON BAY LATE TONIGHT. AS OF 06Z WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE MADE IT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WITH
COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME
LOW STRATUS HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDER SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS NOTED BY 00Z KCAR SOUNDING. CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER DOWNEAST UNDER RIDGE AXIS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH THE HIGHEST TERRAIN GUSTING UPWARDS OF 25
MPH. WITH AIRMASS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DELAYED POPS UNTIL TWD THE END OF THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
S/WV DIVING THROUGH THE SERN U.S. THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND EJECTING
NORTHEAST TODAY. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES CWA THIS EVENING IT WILL
LIKELY DRAW MOISTURE IN FM COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTH AT THE SAME
TIME. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS LOOK TO BE LOCATED OVER DOWNEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES. OTHERWISE FRONT WILL
BE A FAST MOVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.25
INCHES ELSEWHERE.
CAMS ARE STILL SHOWING FINE LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO WINDS ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT QUICK
GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF WINDS
LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO HALLOWEEN STORM AND HAVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL
FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COMPARING NBM 5.0
GUIDANCE PROBS FOR WINDS OF 45KTS FROM THE HALLOWEEN STORM WITH THE
SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, SOLUTION IS VERY
SIMILAR. HIGHEST WINDS FROM PREVIOUS STORM WERE RIGHT AROUND 45 MPH
WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS COMMON. STORM ENDED UP BRINGING ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES ALONG WITH LARGE BRANCHES FALLING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MORE REPORTS OF BRANCHES OR SMALL TREES FALLING ON TUESDAY AS
THEY WILL HAVE BEEN WEAKENED FROM STORM 3 DAYS PRIOR.
AS FAR AS SHOWERS, EXPECT THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTH WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY GEM REGIONAL, HINTING
AT A LAURENTIAN PLUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 300 DEGREE FLOW
THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S SO ONLY
EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS, BUT IT WON/T BE MUCH LONGER NOW!
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY NIGHT...
STILL BREEZY FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT LESS SO THAN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT FURTHER
TO THE EAST. PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER EARLY
IN THE EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA VERY BRIEFLY. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM NW TO SE, WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PASSING FROM NW TO SE ROUGHLY ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. TRENDED FORECAST THIS
STRONGER/WETTER, BUT FORECAST IS STILL FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON
QPF AND WINDS. PRECIP TYPE IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW OR A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTH. IF THE
HEAVIER/STRONGER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, A CORRIDOR ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. OPTED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
TRENDS, AND GIVEN THAT LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVEN'T SEEN MEASURABLE
SNOW YET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SYSTEM KICKS OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND ANY PRECIP TAPERS OFF.
COULD BE RATHER WINDY FROM THE NW, ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM
PANS OUT ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW, WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR ROUGHLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE DECENT PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON
TEMPERATURES. MOST MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP COMING AS
RAIN, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT FAVOR SNOW.
LIKELY YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING TO
MVFR/IFR. WINDS LIGHT THIS MORNING FROM THE SSW BEFORE
INCREASING AFTER 16Z AND BECOMING GUSTY 20-25KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN MOVES IN ALONG WITH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 00Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
LLWS POSSIBLE FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE AROUND
06Z WITH WINDS RAPIDLY BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.
MAY SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVER NRN TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WNW WINDS
10-20KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY HIGHER.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR NORTH EARLY. W WIND
10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. W/SW WIND 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH, AND MOSTLY RAIN
DOWNEAST. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KTS, BECOMING NW LATE.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WIND 5-10 KTS BECOMING
S 10-15 KTS LATE FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AOA 25KTS LATE AFTERNOON. BY 10Z EXPECT
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAY AND 3 TO 5 FEET
FOR THE INTRACOASTALS.
SHORT TERM: NW GALES LIKELY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING,
THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. NW GALES LIKELY AGAIN
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT OR LOW END GALES
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 8 FT, ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF THE RANGE DURING THE PERIODS IN WHICH GALES ARE MORE
LIKELY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TF
LONG TERM...TF
AVIATION...21/TF
MARINE...21/TF
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