086
FXUS61 KCAR 201817
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
117 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
*COLD TONIGHT
*LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WHILE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE LOW 20S.
DRY CONDITIONS START OUT ON FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AFTER NOON. PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE BY FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION, SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST AREAS. WHERE EXACTLY THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL, DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, SLRS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW 10 TO 1 WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO A WET HALF INCH
OR SO AT MOST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FARTHER NORTH.
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE COAST BRINGING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES
-BREEZY NW WINDS SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED
AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS 15-25MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH WITH LOW 40S FOR BANGOR REGION TO DOWNEAST COAST.
EXPECT SOME DECOUPLING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20F.
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST COAST WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
20S. HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES
-THANKSGIVING WEEK STARTS MAINLY DRY & SEASONABLE, GOOD FOR TRAVEL!
-PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE STARTING MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION...
THE 500MB PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. SUNDAY
NIGHT EXPECT LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST BUT UPPER 20S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND BRING AN END TO PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN ZONES FROM BANGOR REGION TO THE
COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY
GIVEN HOW WEAK THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S BANGOR REGION TO THE
COAST.
MUCH OF TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ON ITS HEELS. START THE DAY IN THE 20S WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. IN TERMS OF
THANKSGIVING WEEK TRAVEL WE ARE LOOKING AT GOOD DAYS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID-WEEK, A NEW LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE AN OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO
ANOTHER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AM THEN CHANGING TO RAIN NORTH. THEN MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY
MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW COLD THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AND
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARM
ENOUGH TO BE PLAIN RAIN.
BEYOND AFTER THANKSGIVING...INCREASINGLY STRONGER SIGNALS IN
THE ENSEMBLES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL: VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN ABOUT A 30%
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS APPROXIMATELY 6Z TO 15Z. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KTS
FRIDAY AND SW 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BHB/BGR: VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY IFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING S 5 TO
10 KTS FRIDAY AND SW 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SAT...VFR SOUTH, MVFR CIGS NORTH. NW WINDS 5-15KT
GUSTING 15-25KT.
SUN...VFR. W WINDS 5-15KT.
MON...VFR. AM MVFR POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA/-SHSN. W WINDS 5-10KT.
TUE...VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS LATE. -RA/SN DEVELOPS LATE DAY. W
WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING S-SW LATE DAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY BUT
NW WIND GUSTS LATE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 25-30KT
ON THE COASTAL WATERS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CLOSE A SYSTEM
IS WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY ON POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO SCA CRITERIA. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...SM/JS
MARINE...SM/JS
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