798
FXUS61 KCAR 211039
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
539 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL APPROACH
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH WITH
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TODAY/SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
OCCLUSION PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR
20 INLAND AND THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY
SUNNY MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WEAK OCCLUSION
APPROACHES. THE OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS OCCLUSION SO ANY SNOW
WOULD LIKELY GIVING NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE OVER THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE
OCCLUSION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME CLEARING.
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER OCCLUSION EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME LIGHT RAIN SOUTH AND LIGHT SNOW NORTH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS OCCLUSION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY TRY TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SECONDARY LOW WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PREVENT WARMER AIR
FROM SURGING NORTH AND CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL LIGHT
RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A QUICKER, STRONGER SECONDARY
LOW WOULD HOLD THE COLD AIR IN AND RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF
SNOW OVER THE NORTH BEFORE ANY WARM AIR MOVES NORTH. THE
OCCLUSION SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER
AIR MOVES NORTH. SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILDER WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AND HIGHS FROM AROUND 40 NORTH
TO NEAR 50 BY THE COAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUICK TO DEVELOP YET ANOTHER GREAT LAKES LOW
AND OCCLUSION EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
THURSDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER, CARRYING THE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS VERY QUICK TO LIFT THE OCCLUSION
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS
VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE
A WARM OCCLUSION AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN,
WHICH COULD START AS A LITTLE SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
THE FRIDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING LOOKS CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
WITH A GUSTY WIND AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW/RAIN NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR,
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY NORTH EARLY
TONIGHT, TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR W WIND AROUND 3 KT.
MONDAY...IFR TO MVFR NORTH AND MVFR SOUTH IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT BECOMING SW.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: A SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...CN
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...CN/MB
MARINE...CN/MB
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