927
FXUS61 KCAR 211854
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
154 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
*KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING NORTH
-BREEZY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT 500MB IS PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH. WE ARE
FIGHTING A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING MORE
VIRGA. ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO GET PRECIP WILL SEE PERHAPS UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. MOST ROADWAYS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. PRECIP WILL
TAPER LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST WITH A FEW
30-32F AT THE SHORELINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF MAINE WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS OVER MAINE WILL BE GUSTING
15-25MPH AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S NORTH AND LOW 40S FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST
COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS TO 20F NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE
*NO IMPACTFUL STORMS THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY THEN MOVES EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED SO JUST A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE
*CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY.
WEAK WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN OR
SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE DURING
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW
POSSIBLY MOVES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE
COULD BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EVENING ON THANKSGIVING EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
FVE/CAR/PQI: BECOMING MVFR CIGS WITH -SN INTO THIS EVENING THEN
BECOMING IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS. S-SSE WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING SW
OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR/MVFR CIGS TOMORROW. W-NW
WINDS 5-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
HUL: VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS. VCSH/-SNSH. S-SSE WINDS 5-10KT
SHIFTING SW OVERNIGHT. VFR/MVFR CIGS TOMORROW. W-NW WINDS 5-15KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
BGR/BHB: VFR. S WINDS 5-10KT. WINDS SHIFTING SW TONIGHT. VFR
TOMORROW WITH W-NW WINDS 5-15KT AND SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
SHORT TERM: SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MON THROUGH TUE....VFR.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SW WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING AROUND 25KT TONIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7PM THIS EVENING TO 3AM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20KT OR
LESS OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4FT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW OVERNIGHT AND BE GUSTING UP TO 20KT
TOMORROW. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3FT TOMORROW. NW WINDS ON SATURDAY
EVENING MAY APPROACH 25KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
20-25NM OFFSHORE BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...JS/TWD
MARINE...JS/TWD
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