555
FXUS61 KCAR 212339
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
639 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF MAINE.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
635 PM UPDATE...
UPR S/WV SPINNING JUST TO OUR NORTH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS INITIAL SHOT OF SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO NB OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED,
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE INCH. NO CHGS NEEDED TO FCST
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
*KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING NORTH
-BREEZY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT 500MB IS PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH. WE ARE
FIGHTING A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING MORE
VIRGA. ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO GET PRECIP WILL SEE PERHAPS UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. MOST ROADWAYS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED. PRECIP WILL
TAPER LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST WITH A FEW
30-32F AT THE SHORELINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF MAINE WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NW WINDS OVER MAINE WILL BE GUSTING
15-25MPH AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S NORTH AND LOW 40S FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST
COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS TO 20F NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE
*NO IMPACTFUL STORMS THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY THEN MOVES EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED SO JUST A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE
*CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY.
WEAK WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN OR
SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE DURING
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW
POSSIBLY MOVES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE
COULD BRING SOME SNOW OR RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EVENING ON THANKSGIVING EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY AND THEN BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: BGR LIKELY TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND LOW CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE COAST. BHB
LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/VFR THIS EVENING, IMPROVING AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT.
HUL WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z WITH ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 04Z WITH WEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 14Z.
PQI AND CAR EXPECTED TO BE MVFR THROUGH 08Z BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR, WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 16Z.
FVE LIKELY TO SEE IFR THROUGH 08Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
THROUGH 10Z. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
ALL TERMINALS VFR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MON THROUGH TUE....VFR.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SW WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING AROUND 25KT TONIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7PM THIS EVENING TO 3AM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20KT OR
LESS OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4FT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW OVERNIGHT AND BE GUSTING UP TO 20KT
TOMORROW. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3FT TOMORROW. NW WINDS ON SATURDAY
EVENING MAY APPROACH 25KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
20-25NM OFFSHORE BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...21/JS
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...21/JS/TWD
MARINE...21/JS/TWD
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