758
FXUS61 KCAR 221218
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
718 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DOWNEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE ALSO STARTING TO CROSS WESTERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE SUNDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH CLOUDS THEN INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S NORTH, TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO
THE MID 30S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUSION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH WITH
RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE SO ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING UP ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BRING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
AN OCCLUSION REACHING WELL EAST OF A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN, AND SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH, WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, OR WET SNOW
OVER THE FAR NORTH, SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE OCCLUSION
LIFTS THROUGH. WEDNESDAY WILL TURN OUR A BIT MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM
NEAR 40 NORTH TO 50 ALONG THE COAST. A TRAILING OCCLUSION MAY LIFT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN,
WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUSION LIFTS NORTH. FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THANKSGIVING WITH THE ECMWF JUST FOLLOWING
THE OCCLUSION WITH A BIG LOW LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE REMNANT OCCLUSION
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS SOLUTION WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE GFS MODEL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH
THE ECMWF AND GEM JUST CONSOLIDATING A BIG LOW TO OUR NORTH WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY, THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE
5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR, BECOMING VFR OVER THE SOUTH. NW WIND AROUND 10 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SW
WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR SOUTH. MVFR LOWERING TO IFR NORTH. S WIND
AROUND 3 KT.
WEDNESDAY...IFR, IMPROVING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR SOUTH. SE WIND
AROUND 5 KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH THIS
UPDATE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY. A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS THEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: A SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
FOR NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN UP TO 5 TO 6 FT THANKSGIVING
DAY THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CN
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...CN/MB
MARINE...CN/MB
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