747
FXUS61 KCAR 230146
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
846 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST SUNDAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES EAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WED AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
8:46PM UPDATE...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN AGREEMENT
COMBINED WITH THE 18Z GFS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT OVER FAR WASHINGTON COUNTY.
HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP QPF, SLRS AND RESULTING IN AN AREA UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE OF SNOW FROM EAST MACHIAS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO
EASTPORT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS ON ALL
SURFACES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SLICK TRAVEL. HAVE UPDATED THE
HWO TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
-BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A STRAY FLURRY NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 ACROSS THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST
COAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
STEADIER LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST, AS THE LOW EXITS
THE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DOWNEAST COAST. RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
JUST SLIGHTLY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW TOWARD EASTPORT, OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-NO IMPACTFUL STORMS THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY, ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL
EXIT THE AREA, WHILE CLOUDS STICK AROUND. THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 30S
IN THE SOUTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE FLURRY IN THE NORTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
SOUTH AND CONTINUE IN THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE
20S. FOR TUESDAY, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO
APPROACH THE REGION. THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION,
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT
-RAIN ALL WEDNESDAY
-UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TYPES AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS AN OCCLUSION WITH THE TRIPLE POINT MOVING OVER THE
WATERS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD INTENSIFY BECOMING
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
SYSTEM BRINGING THE PRECIP TO THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD
BECOME ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OCCLUSION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
THE STATE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
TO KEEP RAIN IN THE REGION. BY THANKSGIVING, THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL WORK DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, CAUSING PRECIP TO END, OR WILL MOISTURE REMAIN AND THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHANGES THE PRECIP TO SNOW.
THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A DRIER, WARMER THANKSGIVING, BUT
MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE NEEDED TO MAKE THAT DECISION.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT NW WIND TONIGHT,
BECOMING SW SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR, EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE KBHB
VICINITY IN -SN. LIGHT VARIABLE WIND.
SHORT TERM: MONDAY...MVFR, BECOMING VFR OVER THE SOUTH. NW WIND
5-10 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SW
WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR SOUTH. MVFR LOWERING TO IFR NORTH. LIGHT S
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR. ESE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR/MVFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING FOR NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN UP TO 5 TO 6 FT THANKSGIVING
DAY THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TWD/JS
SHORT TERM...ARL
LONG TERM...ARL
AVIATION...TWD/JS/ARL
MARINE...TWD/JS/ARL
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