024
FXUS61 KCAR 231029
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
529 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY
AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND FROSTY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS TO
OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE OCCLUSION WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
OCCLUSION WILL PRESS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUSION OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
LATE TONIGHT, SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF COASTAL
DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WITH A
DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.
IF THIS OCCURS, SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING BEFORE THE AIR WARMS LATER IN THE MORNING TO MELT ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS.
THE OCCLUSION AND ANY WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN DOWNSLOPING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT
RIDGING, BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY EVENING WILL SEE SFC
HIGH SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH RETURN FLOW KICKING IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. NEAR NORMAL
TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY EVENING AN UPR TROF WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH 300MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF. TRIPLE
POINT LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHERE
THIS ULTIMATELY ENDS UP BEING WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP.
HAVE WENT WITH NBM, WHICH LOOKS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS/EC WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AREAS AND CHC
POPS OVER THE NORTH. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO THE NORTH AND LOW-
MID 30S OVER DOWNEAST, HAVE CHC FOR SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER CENTRAL
AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH THIS WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS AND HOW LOW TEMPS CAN DROP
BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIP.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDING DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
-COLD AND BLUSTERY ON SATURDAY
TRIPLE POINT LOW LOOKS TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPR JET SHIFTS EAST. UPR LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AREA WILL ALLOW H5 RIDGE TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY. DROPPED
POPS TO SLGT/CHC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
OCCURRING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE AS IT STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH
ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER JET CONTINUES TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF,
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT TO
KEEP MOST AREAS STRATIFORM RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY SLOT LOOKS TO SHUT PRECIP OFF ON THURSDAY AS H5 LOW MOVES THRU
SRN QUEBEC THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THANKSGIVING DAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC LOW
THEN DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES AND WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BETWEEN LOW AND 1030MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT TODAY THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. MVFR MONDAY, IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY
AND VFR OVER THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. WINDS NW AROUND 10 KT.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. WSW 5-10KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR SOUTH. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR NORTH LATE. S
AROUND 5KTS BECOMING E 5KTS LATE.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR. E 5-10KTS, BECOMING S 5-10KTS
LATE.
THURSDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SSW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 1 TO 2 FT TODAY, BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AOA SCA LEVELS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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