770
FXUS61 KCAR 241824
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
124 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
-TRIPLE POINT ON OCCLUSION MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THE CENTER IN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIT OVER THE WATERS AS THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION
APPROACHES. THE WARM ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE 40S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION STARTS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR THE EARLY NIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, IT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO START ABOVE FREEZING. CAD WILL SET UP
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING. MODELS, INCLUDING THE NBM, WERE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG DRY LAYER
IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THIS WILL HOLD
BACK THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THE NORTH FOR THE NIGHT. FOR
THE SOUTH, RAIN WILL MOVE IN AND BECOMING HEAVIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN THE LATE NIGHT, THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH. ONCE THE PRECIP HAS FOUGHT PAST THE DRY SIR, THE WARM
NOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN POINT:
* SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
DISCUSSION:
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARDS, PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTHWARDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 900 MB WILL DELAY PRECIP ONSET ACROSS
THE NORTH, AS THIS LAYER WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE MEASURABLE
PRECIP REACHES THE SURFACE. THIS SATURATION MAY TAKE LONG
ENOUGH THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS, WARM AIR WILL HAVE LIFTED
INTO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN INITIAL PRECIP BEING PLAIN RAIN.
AND IF THIS LAYER SATURATES QUICKLY, EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
WIPE OUT THE WEAK WARM NOSE SIGNATURE AND LEAD TO AN INITIAL
PRECIP TYPE OF SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION WILL OCCUR ALOFT WITHOUT WIPING OUT THE WARM NOSE AND
PRIOR TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIFTING ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH
WILL GIVE A PRECIP TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. IN THIS GOLDILOCKS
SCENARIO, FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS A DEGREE
DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE AND/OR ALOFT COULD QUICKLY SHIFT THE
PRECIP TYPE IN EITHER DIRECTION. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ACCUMULATION OCCURS AT ALL.
THAT SAID, EVEN IF ALL PRECIP FALLS AS PLAIN RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SURFACES MAY STILL BE BRIEFLY SLICK, ESPECIALLY ANY
ELEVATED SURFACES WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING, AND
THIS COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. LATER IN
THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM, PLAIN RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND THE
GREATEST THREAT TO TRAVEL WILL BE ISOLATED PONDING IN ANY POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING THURSDAY
AS A DRY SLOT ENTERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
THE PARENT OCCLUDED LOW. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN POINTS:
* GUSTY SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 MPH.
* CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY BUT RAPIDLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, AND MAY
CAUSE FLASH FREEZES IN THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION:
BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL GENERATE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH,
AND STRONGER GUSTS ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY IN ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY SUGGEST THAT
THERE COULD BE SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CAPE, ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM. COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW
TO MID LEVEL WINDS, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD
CONTAIN BRIEF, SUDDEN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MAY
RAPIDLY DECREASE VISIBILITY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
MID 30S, BUT THE POTENCY OF THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, MAY DEVELOP FLASH FREEZES AS WELL.
THESE INGREDIENTS DO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR SNOW
SQUALLS ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DRIER
WEATHER BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND FREEZING
DOWNEAST AND IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ON SATURDAY, BUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COLD
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING WINDS COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH TERMINALS AND VFR FOR
SOUTH TERMINALS FOR THIS EVENING. THEN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
MVFR/IFR IN THE SOUTH EARLY, THEN TO THE NORTH LATER. VFR WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN FOR FVE/CAR/PQI
FOR THE ENTIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
TUESDAY, SSW WINDS 5-10 KTS. TUESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
WED - WED NIGHT: IFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN RAIN. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURS: IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS SW 10 TO 15
KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS.
THURS NIGHT - FRI: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/IFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN -SHSN. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SAT: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS W 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS, DECREASING LATE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.
THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN DECREASE TO BELOW SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS INCREASE ABOVE SCA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25KTS AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET. WINDS APPROACH
GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 34 KTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SEAS INCREASE ABOVE 10 FEET FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH INTRACOASTAL RANGING FROM 4 TO 6
FEET.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...ARL
SHORT TERM...AES
LONG TERM...AES
AVIATION...ARL/AES
MARINE...ARL/AES
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