193
FXUS61 KCAR 250633
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
133 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
-MAY SEE VERY BRIEF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AREAS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
UPR SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO
OUR NORTH, BRINGING LOW-MID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. 1025MB SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFT
EAST AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO KICK WITH TEMPS RISING AFTER 08Z.
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
40S OVER DOWNEAST AND AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES
DIGGING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL DEEPEN
SFC LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND WILL
ULTIMATELY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP
SHIELD SPREADING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DEVELOP TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG
THE MAINE COAST AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, MOVES INTO DOWNEAST AFTER 06Z WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE
NORTH DUE TO VERY DRY AIR. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO DROP BELOW FRZG TO
THE NORTH OF THE UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY WITH THE COAST AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE TIME PRECIP STARTS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A VERY BRIEF CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH ANY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS BUT IT APPEARS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT
BLYR TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID. GIVEN THAT SFC TEMPS
MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING CANNOT RULE OUT A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RAIN AS PRECIP SPREADS NORTH. FORTUNATELY
THIS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY ICE ACCRETION NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS FCST TO RISE INTO THE 50S ALONG THE COAST WITH UPR 30S
OVER THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A CLOSED LOW TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. THE AXIS OF THIS LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
ITS AXIS MOVING INTO MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE NORTH WOODS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION THEN TAPERS OFF AS RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE
ON THURSDAY (RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH WOODS). ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS, WITH MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WOODS RECEIVING AT MOST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING IN, WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A CLOSED LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY, WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT ITS UNCERTAIN IF WE
WILL SEE ANY SNOW SQUALLS, BUT THAT POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND THAT TIME FRAME GETS WITHIN THE REALM OF
THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT, WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSING THE NORTH AND A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR NOW IT
SEEMS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD WIN
OUT AND OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY, IT SHOULD
BE DRY.
LOCALLY ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WITH NO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE PROGGED,
IT SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH AND RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MAINLY ALL SNOW ALSO BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
PENOBSCOT VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME
THE GFS HAS A BRIEFER DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC - GIVEN ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/CMC BLEND IN THIS TIME FRAME. SO COULD
SEE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL AS A RESULT.
FOR MONDAY - THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WE SHOULD BE UNDER SW
FLOW ALOFT - HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER ANY SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FROM DRY TO WIDESPREAD SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RAIN ELSEWHERE, LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AND WENT WITH
CONVECTIVE VICE STRATIFORM WORDING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY-SUNDAY POTENTIALLY MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WILL BE VFR/MVFR FOR THE FIRST
2-3 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 09Z.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5KTS.
ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY 5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER LIKELY.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR FROM S TO N EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY AT KFVE
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SW
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY, BECOMING WNW-NW
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-30KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS
INCREASE ABOVE 5FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.
MAY SEE SEAS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER A
BRIEF 10-12 HOUR BREAK IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GALES THEN POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SCAS LIKELY ON THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
LATE IN THE DAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...21/PM
MARINE...21/PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page