897
FXUS61 KCAR 251825
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
125 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT
-MAY SEE VERY BRIEF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AREAS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. THE QUESTION REMAINS THE SAME, HOW FAR NORTH
WILL THE PRECIP BE ABLE TO PROGRESS WITH THE DRY MID/LOW LEVELS.
THE MODELS REMAIN THE SAME WITH KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE
NORTH OF THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SNOW AND MIXED FREEZING RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WARM TEMPS
SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE, THE CAD WILL
HAVE COOLER TEMPS AS WELL AS THE NORTH, BUT THE PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY LIQUID WITH SOME SNOW WORKING INTO THE
COOLER AREAS. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THE COLUMN
MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR MOVES
IN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE RAIN WITH THE NORTH
SEEING RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH.
THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
WOODS BRING TEMPS TO JUST BELOW FREEZING, THUS SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THURSDAY...
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS MAINE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END AS A COLD RAIN FOR MOST
PLACES, EXCEPT FROM AROUND MOOSEHEAD LAKE NORTH INTO THE NORTH
WOODS, WHERE A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE. EVEN IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, THINKING SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH TOPS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY FROM THE WEST AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH AND THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S DOWNEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A LARGE CUTOFF VERTICALLY STACKED CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSES JUST NORTH OF US DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS PUTS US IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THINK THAT THE BEST SHOT AT SQUALLS WILL BE IN NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT MILLINOCKET NE. ONE SLIGHTLY
LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE ISN'T A WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC FRONT,
SO EXPECT MORE OF OPEN CELLULAR CONVECTION. ALSO, TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S, SO IT'LL BE A TOUCH
MILD, THOUGH ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS LOOK A
BIT MARGINAL WITH MOST GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH, SO WILL NEED
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TO HELP GENERATE ANY GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
(SQUALL CRITERIA).
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD BE QUITE COLD IF THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OUT
RIGHT. WE ARE GOING FOR TEENS TO LOW 20S, BUT COULD FORESEE
SOME PLACES GETTING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
NEXT CONCERN IS A LIKELY SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS COMING FROM A SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, MEANING WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA GETS RAIN VS
SNOW, BUT CHANCES FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WITH A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH TOO. DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN NBM FOR THE LATE SUNDAY TO
EARLY MONDAY PERIOD, AND BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH TO VAN
BUREN AFTER THE START AS SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A GENERAL
1-3 INCH SNOW IN THE NORTH, PERHAPS A BIT MORE IN THE FAR NORTH,
BUT AGAIN, STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
HEADING INTO EARLY/MID-WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH LIKELY MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON UNDER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL W/SW FLOW, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR SYSTEM
IS NOT THERE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. FOR SOUTH TERMINALS IFR/LIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT, FOR
NORTH TERMINALS MVFR/IFR EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. ALL TERMINALS
WILL BE IFR/LIFR FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WEDNESDAY, LIGHT ENE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR BY 14Z EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY AT KFVE WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. W/SW WINDS AROUND
10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. W/SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WITH RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE. S WIND 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BELOW SCA LEVELS AND REMAIN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
FOR MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG W WINDS. UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SEAS WILL BE 6-9 FT. THE WINDS EASE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...ARL
SHORT TERM...TF
LONG TERM...TF
AVIATION...ARL/TF
MARINE...ARL/TF
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