330
FXUS61 KCAR 260654 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
154 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY AN
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN MARITIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-BRIEF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EXPECTED
06Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER
WISCONSIN WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND. LOW BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LAST EVENING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CLOSER TO HOME,
PRECIP SHIELD HAS SPREAD INTO SRN MAINE WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
OVER DOWNEAST. ANALYZING FEATURES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IT
APPEARS TRIPLE POINT LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
WITH MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER MA/RI AND CT. AT THE SAME TIME LFQ OR
UPR LEVEL JET HAS MOVED INTO ERN NH/SOUTHERN ME WITH INITIAL SHOT
OF RAIN SPREADING TO THE EAST.
SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FRZG IN THE CWA OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LOOKING AT LOCAL OBSERVATION STATIONS, IT APPEARS THAT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY STILL BE AROUND 31 DEGREES FROM A LINE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO SRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AS RAIN MOVES NORTH,
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THOUGH THIS IS LOOK
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EXPECT ANY FRZG RAIN THAT CAN FALL WILL
NOT HAVE THE CHANCE TO ACCRETE DUE TO WARM GROUND THAT IS INSULATED
FROM SNOW COVER. ROAD TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH CURRENTLY HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, THOUGH OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING AT ONSET.
TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE THRU DOWNEAST THIS MORNING. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH JET AXIS AND INITIAL S/WV WILL MOVE INTO NB THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACRS THE AREA.
OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH TONIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING ACRS THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN COLD AIR COMES CRASHING IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SWITCHING PRECIP ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST TO
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY TO BE MINOR AND UNDER 1/2
INCH THRU DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING OVER THE NORTH WOODS.
PRECIP GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF
THE AREA THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW, ACRS THE NORTHEAST.
EITHER WAY, PRECIP WILL EXIT THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
DRY BUT WINDY DAY ON TAP.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE REGION IS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WITH NO
SHORTWAVES OF NOTE PROGGED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER THE
REGION IT SHOULD BE DRY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS (MAINLY HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS). LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE OVER THE REGION UNDER THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
(POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS NEAR KATAHDIN AND IN N SOMERSET) EXCEPT
FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY COASTAL
DOWNEAST. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP 8-9C/KM FOR A DEPTH OF AROUND 10KFT FROM AROUND 2000-12000
FT. THIS IS CONSISTENT ACROSS THE CWA IN BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVECTION. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE WITH A
FAIRLY WELL MIXED LAYER OF AROUND 25 TO JUST UNDER 30 KT - NOT
SURE IF WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE THE TECHNICAL DEFINITION OF A
SQUALL OR NOT IN TERMS OF WIND GUSTS. TO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL,
SINCE NOT WITHIN THE REALM OF MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS). SO WILL STICK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF 1-2" OF SNOW IN THOSE AREAS THAT DO
GET THE STRONGER CONVECTION, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD ONLY GET A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ON AVERAGE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
MOST ACCUMULATIONS TO GRASSY SURFACES, EXCEPT THOSE UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A RESULT, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS GREATLY
REDUCED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
IT SHOULD BE DRY.
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXITS TO THE NE ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SET UP OVER THE
REGION (850 WINDS AROUND 45-55KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
50-60KT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT). SO IT COULD BE QUITE WINDY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE (STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST) DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THIS STRONG JET CAN BE
TAPPED (LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 3-4C/KM DEFINITELY ARE A
LIMITING FACTOR - EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE CLOSER TO MOIST
ADIABATIC). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT FOR NOW IT
SEEMS LIKE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. 00Z
GUIDANCE TENDED A LITTLE COOLER THAN 12Z RUNS WITH GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MAINLY SNOW DOWN INTO CENTRAL MAINE. DIDN'T PUSH THE
RAIN SNOW LINE THAT FAR SOUTH, BUT DID PUSH IT DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK. AS A RESULT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINES SETS UP,
WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN OVER MOST OF DOWNEAST
MAINE.
THE AXIS OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY LIFTS NE THROUGH MAINE
MONDAY, TAPERING THE PRECIPITATION OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE
DAY WITH ALL BUT FAR NW AREAS CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIP CHANCE ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON - BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM, DID NOT ADJUST NBM POPS.
SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE, HOWEVER A SMALL NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO BRING SOME OF THE LOWS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WENT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS NOW (RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX COASTAL DOWNEAST) ON THE NW
PERIPHERY. BUT IF THE LOW TRACKS MOVED CLOSE ENOUGH COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL - OR MORE LIKELY THAN NOT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IT COULD
END UP DRY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, SHOULD BECOME ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY -
WITH MONDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO
FAR - WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS (MAYBE EVEN SINGLE DIGITS) POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF
MAINE AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: DOWNEAST TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING TO IFR WITHIN THE HOUR. IFR/LIFR WILL BE PRESENT NEXT
24 HOURS FOR BGR AND BHB. RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE OUT BY 16Z, LEAVING
LIFR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE IN IT/S WAKE.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR BETWEEN 10Z-13Z THIS MORNING
WITH IFR MOVING IN WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN EXITS, LEAVING IFR FOG
THRU END OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE MORNING FOR DOWNEAST
WITH IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS AT
MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS. WSW-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. WSW-W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING WNW-NW SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS
G20-30KT POSSIBLE. LLWS PROBABLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS
AND WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA FOR THE INTRACOASTAL
ZONES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
FOR MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG W WINDS. UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SEAS WILL BE 6-9 FT. THE WINDS EASE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...21/PM
MARINE...21/PM
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