669
FXUS61 KCAR 160648
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
148 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCING THE REGION/S WX THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND DOWN TOWARD 0F. WEAK WAVE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO
SERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THIS WILL ERODE AS IT HEADS TWD
CWA THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDING UP ACRS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING. AFTERNOON MAXES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 20S ACRS THE NORTH AND UPR 20S DOWNEAST
WITH MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH UPR LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT MAY DRAW H8 TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY -FZRA
ACRS THE NORTH. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO JUST A GLAZE OF ICE
WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT. SURFACE TEMPS LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR FREEZING
ACRS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO PREVENT ANY REAL CHANCE FOR
ACCRETION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUOUS WARMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE TEMPS INTO THE TEENS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW SHOULD STRETCH TO THE
NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE S. THIS SHIFT SHOULD BOOST
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, S
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE
CAD SETTING UP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS
BECOME GUSTY. AS THE LLJ MOVES IN, THE WARM AIRMASS SHOULD
FOLLOW, ALLOWING FOR ANTIDIURNAL TEMP INCREASE INTO THE 40S BY
SUNRISE. THIS WARMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY WHERE THE SNOWPACK EXISTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
-RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS AND RAIN/SNOWMELT CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE MOST LIKELY, WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF LOCAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK LOSS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST, WITH LESS SNOWPACK LOSS AND
MORE COMPACTION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE SNOWPACK
SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL, HOWEVER, WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE,
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND, COLD SNOWPACK SHOULD ACT TO
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE INVERSION AND LIMIT MIXING TOWARDS THE
SURFACE.
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXITING FRIDAY EVENING. THIS EARLIER EXIT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP TEMPS EARLIER, SWITCHING ANY REMAINING RAIN
TO SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE EARLY COOLING
INCREASES THE CONCERNS OF A FLASH FREEZE, ESPECIALLY IF SURFACES
DO NOT GET ENOUGH TIME TO DRY BEFORE THE TEMPS DROP. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SEEING AS THE CANADIAN HAS A SLOWER EXIT OF
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SSW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20KTS.
SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR NORTH. REMAINING
VFR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WSW 5-15KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WINDS S 10 GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IFR IN RAIN, POSSIBLY LOWER WITH AREAS OF
FOG. LLWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS S 10-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS NORTH AND 40KTS FOR BGR AND COASTAL
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MVFR NORTH, VFR DOWNEAST. WINDS NW
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS, DECREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 5FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND WINDS DROPPING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE RAMPING UP LATE
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AND INCREASING OVER THE INTRACOASTAL SEVERAL HOURS
LATER. SEAS BECOME ELEVATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
13 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH INNER
WATERS MAY DROP OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO GALE
FORCE FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS THEN SHIFT FROM
THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT GALE FORCE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE ABOVE 5FT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO AS
HIGH AS 12FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARD 15FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5FT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ARL
LONG TERM...ARL
AVIATION...21/ARL
MARINE...21/ARL
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