859
FXUS61 KCAR 171144
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY, WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SLIDES TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
645 AM UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES MOVING INTO NRN AREAS THOUGH STILL NO GROUND TRUTH
IN THE AREA. MONTREAL HAD REPORTED FRZG RAIN AN HOUR AGO AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF SLEET/FRZG RAIN THIS MORNING. NO
CHGS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO ONGOING FCST.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
KEY MESSAGES
-SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET POSSIBLE EARLY-MID MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH
-WARMING TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATE
UPR-LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATING TWD THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY AS OF
06Z WITH SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC. COLD FRONT IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE FROM SFC OBS AS IT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA
LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH
PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW IN WARM ADVECTION.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND S/WV MOVING THRU LOOKS TO BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH BY MID-MORNING. PRECIP LOOKS TO MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS A HOULTON-MOOSEHEAD LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE
CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACRS THE NORTH UNTIL
AFTER ABOUT 15 OR 16Z, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS IN THE WARM LAYER
INCREASE TO JUST ABOVE 0C BEFORE PRECIP REALLY GETS GOING. THUS
HAVE CUT BACK ON MENTION OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND/OR FRZG
RAIN BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER, AT ONSET OF PRECIP CANNOT RULE
OUT A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO JUST
NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACRS THE NORTH WITH DOWNEAST IN
THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH WINDS REMAINING MIXED WITH LOWS
DROPPING TOWARD THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH AND UPR TEENS
TO LWR 20S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH SRLY
WINDS DRAWING IN WARM AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WIL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUNCH INTO THE AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
2) RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. ANY FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINOR.
1) UPPER LEVEL MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING TROF MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
LLJ INTO THE WATERS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION, THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND THE LLJ TO INCREASE. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS DOWNEAST. ELSEWHERE
SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS.
2) THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE
NORTH, BRINGING S WINDS AND A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS. EXPECT
ANTI-DIURNAL WARMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 40S BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY, TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, RAIN
WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING UP TO 1 INCH OF
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK LOSS IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND US-1. THE COMBINATION OF
EXISTING SNOW ABSORBING RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE FLOODING THREAT TO POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STRONG, GUSTY NW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
2) TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT, REFREEZING
ANY LINGERING STANDING WATER.
3) A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
1) THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD SHIFT THE LLJ MORE TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
A COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A REFREEZING OF ANY STANDING WATER LEFT OVER FROM THE
RAIN. THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD DRY OUT MUCH OF THE ROADWAYS, ANY
REMAINING WATER SHOULD FREEZE. EXTEND MODELS ARE STARTING TO
TREND WITH A FASTER EXIT OF THE COLD FRONT, THUS GIVING CONCERN
TO A FASTER COOLING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. UPCOMING CAMS MODELS
SHOULD GIVE A BETTER IDEA.
3) THE QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD MOVE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, SO STAYED
WITH THE NBM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR DOWNEAST TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH AT
HUL BETWEEN 20-01Z BUT TERMINAL WILL BE ON FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON, WITH FVE POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH-WESTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA THIS EVENING.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 20-30KTS BY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IFR IN RAIN, POSSIBLY LOWER
WITH AREAS OF FOG. LLWS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS S
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS NORTH AND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS FOR
AND BGR AND COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MVFR NORTH, VFR DOWNEAST. WINDS NW
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS, DECREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN
-SN. WINDS S AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 13 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS,
BOTH WINDS AND WAVES, WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO SCA AND EVENTUALLY GALES IN
THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
THEN SHIFT FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT
GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE ABOVE 5FT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 12FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN
TOWARD 15FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5FT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ARL
LONG TERM...ARL
AVIATION...21/ARL
MARINE...21/ARL
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