425
FXUS61 KCAR 181107
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A NEW
LOW WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
607AM UPDATE: DECIDED TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE DECREASING WINDS AND WAVES. OTHERWISE, THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.
2) RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
WHAT CHANGED:
-STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FRIDAY.
-HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DOWNEAST COAST AND A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
FOR TODAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH
THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING OVER THE NORTH, THE S WINDS AND WARM
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE WARMING TREND OVER THE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR
TONIGHT, THE ANTI-DIURNAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TEMPS INTO THE 40S BY SUNRISE. IN ADDITION, THE LLJ WILL MOVE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH RES MODELS CONFIRM A CONSISTENT
TREND OF LLJ INTENSIFICATION FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERNS FROM THE KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE LLJ
WILL CAUSE S WINDS TO INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
LOCALIZE 55MPH POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND, THE WINDS WILL REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE CONCERN WITH THE WINDS ARE SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS FURTHER
NORTH WILL ALSO SEE GUST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
2) THE 24 HOURS OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS
UP TO 1 INCH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW PACK TO COMPRESS AND MELT.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE PONDING OF WATER IN OPEN AREAS
AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. ANY LEFT OVER SNOW UNDER FLOODED
AREAS COULD CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL ISSUE FOR TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE
WEST ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BE
MODEST JUST NUDGING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BY DAWN DOWN INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND
20S DOWNEAST. ANY STANDING WATER OR REMNANT SLUSH ON DRIVEWAYS AND
ELSEWHERE WILL FREEZE INTO SLIPPERY ICE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED CLIPPER LOW SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A COUPLE INCHES TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW HIDING REFROZEN SLUSH AND SMOOTH PATCHES OF ICE
WILL RESULT IN A HAZARD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR FREEZING NORTH AND THE LOW 40S BY THE COAST UNDER A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AWAY INTO THE
NORTHERN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR AND SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST.
STRONG, COLD GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY
ONLY IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO
NEAR 20 NORTH AND NEAR FREEZING DOWNEAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
INCREASING RAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY, IFR/LIFR IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. TODAY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S 5-10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, S
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. FRIDAY, S WINDS 15-30
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS. LLWS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH. MVFR TO VFR SOUTH. GUSTY W WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR SOUTH AND IFR NORTH.
INCREASING S WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR, BECOMING VFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH. GUSTY SW
WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR NORTH. VFR SOUTH. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THIS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE BACK TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT. A STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 20 FT.
SHORT TERM:
A STRONG GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR W WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 KT, DIMINISHING TO A SCA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, FOR NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KT. DANGEROUS SEAS UP TO 20
FT FRIDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING TO 15 FT SATURDAY MORNING AND 8 FT
LATE SATURDAY. SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 10 FT SUNDAY THEN
BACKING OFF TO 6 FT MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ARL
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...ARL/MB
MARINE...ARL/MB
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