165
FXUS61 KCAR 191515
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY AND SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1015 AM UPDATE...PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS HAS RESULTED IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED SO ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
* KEY MESSAGES:
1) FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST, INCLUDING THE BANGOR
REGION, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. FOR THE NORTH,
STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING, LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
2) RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. POOR DRAINAGE WATER PONDING IS
EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOWPACK LOSS FOR MOST AREAS.
3) TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A
FLASH FREEZE POSSIBLE ON THE ROADS, MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
* SIGNIFICANT TWEAKING OF WIND HAZARDS, INCLUDING A LATER START
TIME FOR DOWNEAST (MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY), AN EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO ALL OF HANCOCK COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT INCLUDING BANGOR, EXPANSION OF WIND
ADVISORIES TO ALL AREAS, AND AN EARLIER START OF WIND
ADVISORIES IN THE NORTH (MID-AFTERNOON TODAY INSTEAD OF
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT).
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIND IS THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERALL. THIS IS NOT A HIGH END HIGH
WIND EVENT (WE HAVE SEEN WORSE), BUT STILL, DO EXPECT IMPACTS
THAT ARE TYPICALLY SEEN ABOUT 2-4 TIMES PER SEASON. VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX DOWN THE WINDS. THUS HAVE DELAYED
THE START OF WIND HEADLINES DOWNEAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT
3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 1-7PM, WITH THE
WORST WINDS AROUND 4-7PM. ADDED ALL ZONES NORTH OF BANGOR TO AN
EARLIER START TO THE WIND ADVISORY, AS THINK THAT WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN FAIRLY WELL WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF 4-7PM. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL
ENHANCE THE MIXING. WE'VE SEEN SITUATIONS BEFORE WHEN THE SOUTH
WIND HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF COMES THROUGH
AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT MIXES WINDS DOWN FAST, AND THINK
WE COULD BE SEEING THIS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
BUT THEN WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS ROUND OF WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE NORTH, AND HAVE CONTINUED WIND ADVISORIES
THERE INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY. FURTHER ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN EASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AROUND A HALF TO INCH AND QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
NOTHING TERRIBLY HEAVY, BUT THE RAIN, COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT AND
DECIMATION OF THE SNOWPACK WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE
FLOODING, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT. THINK THAT LARGER
STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH NO ISSUES. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF ABRUPTLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FLASH FREEZE OF WET ROADS IS A CONCERN TONIGHT, BUT NOT A
CERTAINTY. BIGGEST THREAT IS IN THE NORTH, WHERE THERE IS ABOUT
A FOUR HOUR GAP BETWEEN WHEN THE RAIN ENDS AND TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND DURING THIS FOUR HOUR
PERIOD, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ROADS COULD DRY OUT IN TIME.
IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. THE TIME LAG BETWEEN ENDING OF RAIN AND
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT 7 HOURS DOWNEAST, WHICH
HOPEFULLY WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST ROADS FROM FREEZING.
AT THE LEAST, LOOK FOR SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS TO BECOME ICY,
AND PROBABLY SOME SIDE ROADS. MAIN ROADS, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
ARE A TOUGHER CALL AS THIS ISN'T A SLAM-DUNK FLASH FREEZE
SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE AT
NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST, IT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTH TO CHANGE SNOW TO
RAIN. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER
THE NORTH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY MORNING A FRESH COVERING OF SNOW WILL HIDE RESIDUAL ICY
PATCHES FROM THE REFREEZE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RESULTING IN A
DANGEROUS SLIP HAZARD IN SOME WALKWAYS AND DRIVEWAYS. OTHERWISE, ANY
SNOW OVER THE NORTH WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING SUNDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH TO NUDGE TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE NORTH AND IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT PULLING COLD
AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE COAST WITH
SUNSHINE SOUTH AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SKY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. ANY SNOW WILL PROBABLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS. THE SKY WILL THEN TREND
CLEARER LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: LLWS ALL SITES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ALL SITES TODAY AND BECOME QUITE
STRONG AND GUSTY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS ESPECIALLY FROM
18Z-0Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EASING SOME. STILL
REMAINING GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS ALREADY IFR BGR/BHB, AND GOING DOWN TO IFR
IN THE NORTH BY ABOUT 12Z. REMAINING IFR OR LOWER THROUGH ABOUT
0-2Z TONIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AND GENERALLY
REMAINING VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR SOUTH. VFR TO IFR NORTH. S WINDS. SW
WIND SHEAR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...IFR NORTH BECOMING MVFR. VFR SOUTH. SW WIND SHEAR, ESP IN
THE MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH VFR SOUTH. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING W.
TUESDAY...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR, SW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: PUSHED BACK START TIME FOR STORM WARNING TO 1PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE STILL IN STORM FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND ARE THEN GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS PEAK AROUND 19 FEET THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM:
A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR STRONG WNW WINDS. THE WINDS WILL DROP TO SCA MONDAY
THEN BELOW SCA MONDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY,
BUILDING TO A GALE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 10 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN SUBSIDING TO 6 FT
MONDAY AND 2 FT TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING BACK UP TO 8 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN BACK TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010-031.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ011-032.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015-016-
029-030.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...TF/SM
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...TF/SM/MB
MARINE...TF/SM/MB
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