031
FXUS61 KCAR 201135
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
635 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT, TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY, AND CONTINUE
INTO THE NORTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
* KEY MESSAGES:
1) REMAINING WINDY THIS MORNING, WINDIEST IN THE NORTH. STILL
WINDY DOWNEAST, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWNEAST ARE OVER.
2) PATCHY ICY SPOTS ON ROADS THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE NORTH
AND IN MORE PROTECTED AREAS.
3) LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL BUT DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
* 3AM UPDATE: INCREASED POPS NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTH DUE
TO OBSERVED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO, BLENDED IN SOME HRRR
INTO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS IT IS BETTER HANDLING THE FAIRLY
STEADY TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE FASTER
DROP BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO, RAISED WIND GUSTS A
TOUCH IN THE NORTH PRESENTLY AND NEXT TWO HOURS BASED ON SOME
OBSERVED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CARIBOU AND FRENCHVILLE.
* LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE WINDS TODAY, FLASH FREEZE
POTENTIAL EARLY TODAY, AND FOR THE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WINDS ARE PICKING BACK UP NOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AFTER A
BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH
AROUND 6-8PM. WIND DIRECTION IS NOW OUT OF THE WEST (AS OPPOSED
TO THE SOUTH WINDS EARLIER), AND THESE WINDS ARE COUPLED WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A SECONDARY DROP IN TEMPERATURES AFTER
TEMPERATURES BEING NEARLY STEADY FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTS HERE AT
THE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAVE PICKED BACK UP TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
EXPECT GENERALLY GUSTS 35-45 MPH OVER NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE EASING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNEAST, WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS BAD THIS MORNING, WITH
GENERALLY 25-35 MPH GUSTS. THAT SAID, ANY WIND IS NOT GOOD AS
THE MANY ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER FROM YESTERDAY'S WINDSTORM, AND
LIGHTER WINDS WILL HELP RECOVERY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS
DOWNEAST ALSO EASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH,
BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THINK THAT DOWNEAST IS HAVING A LONG ENOUGH DELAY BETWEEN THE
END OF THE RAIN AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT A FLASH
FREEZE OF ROADS WON'T HAPPEN IN ALL BUT THE MOST ISOLATED SPOTS.
NORTHERN MAINE IS A TOUGHER CALL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 1AM ARE
JUST A HAIR ABOVE FREEZING, BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING, SO EXPECT ANY WET SURFACES TO START FREEZING ANY TIME
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL EASILY BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS QUITE WINDY IN THE NORTH AND THIS
WILL HELP ROADS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. BOTTOM LINE, EXPECT PATCHY
ICE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS MORE PROTECTED FROM THE
WIND, BUT EXPECT ROADS TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS WELL AS THE WINDS
PERSIST. ISSUED AN SPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR TO COVER THIS
THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE LATE TODAY IS VERY SHORT-LIVED, AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM (A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT) MOVES IN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SNOW DEVELOPING MID
TO LATE EVENING, MAINLY IN THE NORTH, AND TAPERING OFF BY DAWN
SUNDAY. THIS QUICK HITTING WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IN THE NORTH, LESS THAN INCH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FROM GREENVILLE TO MILLINOCKET TO TOPSFIELD, AND
LITTLE IF ANY ON THE COAST AS IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST
SOME LIGHT RAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, BUT THE NORTH COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS (40
PERCENT CHANCE) AS MORE UNSTABLE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST, WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTRASTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN MARITIMES WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SOME MOISTURE BACKING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
NORTH WITH DOWNSLOPING ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DOWNEAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A THIN
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
DIMINISHING WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OUR FOCUS ON TUESDAY TURNS TO A WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS CARRYING
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND THE ECMWF TAKING THE LOW TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY FAST MOVING AND COLD AIR WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE, EVEN A NORTH TRACKING SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE TIME
TO DRAW MUCH WARM AIR NORTH SO ANY PRECIPITATION WE GET SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE SOME RAIN MAY
MIX IN.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. THIS
NEXT SHORWAVE WILL BE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
TODAY...MAIN HAZARD EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE WIND, WHICH IS
QUITE GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, AND FROM THE W. MAINLY VFR
TODAY, WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS UNTIL 14Z TODAY IN THE
NORTH. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT THEN
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...LLWS FROM SW WINDS DEVELOPING ALL SITES. THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH MVFR LIKELY DEVELOPING NORTH OF BGR FROM CIGS AND
LIGHT SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE BHB/BGR, BUT VFR MORE LIKELY. SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING TO S/SW 10 KTS.
SUNDAY...INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR FROM HUL NORTH, AND VFR SOUTH
INCLUDING BHB/BGR. W/SW WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR...GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT W TO SW WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR, DROPPING TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR OVER THE
SOUTH. LIGHT NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR BECOMING MVFR SOUTH. MVFR NORTH. LIGHT N
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
GALE FORCE WINDS W WINDS THIS MORNING EASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT-
LIVED, AS GALES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM:
A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DROP TO SCA MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN BELOW SCA
MONDAY NIGHT RETURNING TO SCA LATE TUESDAY THEN GALE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DROP BACK TO SCA ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO 5 FT MONDAY, 2 FT TUESDAY AND BACK UP
TO 6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-
031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...TF
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...TF/MB
MARINE...TF/MB
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