427
FXUS61 KCAR 210634
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
134 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY, THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WEAK OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BREEZY AND MILD MORNING WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY USHERING IN COLDER AIR
AND SHIFTING THE WIND FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
A BIT OF THIN CAPE MIDDAY FROM AROUND 3K FT UP TO 10K FT OVER
THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY WORK WITH THE STEEP
LAPS RATES TO PRODUCE A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AFTER THE FRONT WILL BRING A RISK OF WET
ROADS BECOMING ICY AND SLIPPERY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY AND COLD WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST MAINTAINS A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
2) LIGHT SNOW DOWNEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
IMPACTING HOLIDAY TRAVEL
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NORTH AND INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT COLD TEMPS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS ACRS THE NORTH, IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE 50TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM FOR MIN TEMPS TUESDAY IS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES
COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST ZONES.
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION DOESN/T
KICK IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS RUNNING BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A S/WV INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SFC LOW DEEPENING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO
DOWNEAST AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
SFC LOW WILL WORK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
HINTS OF A NORLUN TROUGH DEVELOPING, BRINGING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
THE COAST AND INTO THE BANGOR REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT UP INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS QUIET AND COLD
2) POSSIBLE STORM LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES FROM IMPACTING THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER,
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OVER THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS OPPOSED TO THE RULE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DIGGING UPR LEVEL TROF WILL BE WORKING INTO EASTERN CANADA LATE IN
THE LONG TERM. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS INDICATES ELONGATED SFC LOW ALONG
THE MAINE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER THE PLACE, AS ARE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALONG WITH 18Z EURO MEMBERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH NBM TREND OF CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY ALL AREAS WITH UPR TROF APPROACHING CWA
FROM THE WEST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE RISK THAT A SNOW SQUALL BRIEFLY LOWERS CONDITIONS TO
IFR OVER THE NORTH AROUND MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH. GUSTY SW
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 2K FT. VFR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTY
W TO NW WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW 5KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH AND IFR/LIFR IN SNOW AT DOWNEAST
TERMINALS. NNE 5KTS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR NORTH, IFR SOUTH IN SNOW EARLY. IMPROVING TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. NNW 5KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE MVFR NORTH IN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT W BECOMING 5-10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
A GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SW
WINDS TODAY AND W WINDS TONIGHT, DROPPING TO A SCA ON MONDAY.
SEAS UP TO 11 FT TODAY, DROPPING TO 7 FT TONIGHT AND 5 FT ON
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WITH NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GALE
FORCE WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO AOA
5FT DURING THE SAME PERIOD IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. CONDITIONS FALL
BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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