020
FXUS61 KCAR 051443
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
943 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A NEW LOW
APPROACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
945AM UPDATE: ALL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION AND WATERS HAVE
BEEN CANCELED OR EXPIRED FOR TODAY. ADJUSTED PARAMETERS FOR OBS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
KEY MESSAGES...
1) ARCTIC TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT
2) WARMING TREND TUESDAY LEADS TO CHANCE OF SNOW
DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVED TONIGHT THAT ORIGINATED
FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS SHOT MISSED US SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH UP
OVER THE GASPE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS SLOWED THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS TONIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME MORE MIXING.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND FLURRIES ENDED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY RELAXING. MORE DECOUPLING EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3HRS AS WE HEAD FOR SUNRISE AROUND 7:17AM EST. EXPECTING
LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -20F TO -10F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH WOODS
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS -30F. ANY WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
RANGING AS LOW AS -33F, HENCE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TILL 9AM EST BUT ADJUSTED WORDING TO INCLUDE AIR
TEMPERATURES AND/OR WIND CHILLS.
TODAY THE 1022MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSITIONS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE STATE AND KEEPS WINDS RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH, 9-13F
FOR MOOSEHEAD REGION, BAXTER REGION TO BANGOR REGION INCLUDING
EAST ALONG THE AIRLINE TO CALAIS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
EXPECTING HIGHS 15-19F TODAY. TONIGHT, THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WHERE THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS REMAIN
RELAXED MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS UP HERE WILL QUICKLY FALL
BACK INTO THE -12F TO -8F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM 0F TO 10F WITH WARMEST TEMPS AT THE
COASTLINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AT 500MB SLIDES THROUGH. ITS A PROGRESSIVE PIECE OF
ENERGY BUT WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY FOR THE BANGOR REGION TO THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING A
TON OF QPF WITH THIS, JUST A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF LIQUID BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SLRS 16-17:1. THE NBM 5.0
PROBABILITIES FOR >TRACE OF SNOW IN BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR HAVE
TRIPLED IN THE LAST 2 CYCLES WITH 50% PROBS NOW COVERING THE FAR
SW PORTIONS OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY INTO COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY
AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY AND INCLUDING MDI. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
EXIST FROM CASTINE AREA TO DEER ISLE. NOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SNOWFALL PERHAPS UP TO 0.5 INCH BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE
SOME AREAS SLIPPERY FOR TRAVEL. BUMPED POPS UP BECAUSE NBM 4.3
ISN'T FULLY REPRESENTING THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES SO BLENDED
IN MORE SHORT RANGE CAMS INTO THE POP FORECAST. WILL CALL IT
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND CANNOT RULE OUT PERHAPS A LOCATION
OR TWO SNEAKING OUT AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW.
TUESDAY THE WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AS HIGHS CLIMB TO
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SHORELINE (35-39F). INLAND EXPECTING HIGHS
AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR EASTWARD ALONG THE AIRLINE TO CALAIS.
NORTH IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DANFORTH REGION EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LOW 20S. IT
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS AND BEST
CHANCE OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OUR COAST.
THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW NORTH AND RAIN DOWNEAST INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
INITIALLY THE RAIN WILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE PUSHING NORTH AS SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE LOW LIFT WARMER AIR NORTH. ONE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IS
THAT THE GROUND INCLUDING WALKWAYS AND ROADS HAVE BEEN VERY
CHILLED FROM THE RECENT EXTREME COLD AND RAIN MAY FREEZE ON MAY
SURFACES, ESPECIALLY UNTREATED SURFACES, CREATING ICY PATCHES BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN IF TEMPERATURES ARE NUDGING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS A FAST MOVING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING A POSITION NEAR NORTHEASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL END
DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
THE SKY WILL TREND CLEARER OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MILD DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE UPPER
30S DOWNEAST AS UPPER RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUR FOCUS ON FRIDAY TURNS TO A VERY ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTER GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IN THE NORTH EAST SUPPORTED BY WARM
ADVECTION WEST OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OUR COAST WILL PUSH WARM AIR
NORTH INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO BE PLAIN RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES IN LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SOME RAIN FREEZING
ON SOME SURFACES, ESPECIALLY NORTH, FRIDAY NIGHT. AN INITIAL WAVE
WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE MAIN LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND FOG TO THE REGION. THE LOW SHOULD
MOVE AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING W TODAY AND
BECOMING 5KT OR LESS LATE DAY.
TONIGHT...VFR NORTH, MVFR CIGS SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXPECTING VCSH/-SN AT BGR AND BHB TONIGHT WITH LITTLE VSBY
REDUCTION EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...VFR NORTH, MVFR CIGS SOUTH BECOMING VFR. ANY -SN AT
BGR AND BHB BECOMING VCSH OR NO PRECIP BY MIDDAY. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR SOUTH. MVFR LOWERING TO IFR NORTH. LIGHT E WIND.
WEDNESDAY...IFR IN SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. LIGHT NE WIND BECOMING
N.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH. IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR
NORTH. LIGHT NW WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. LIGHT NW WIND
BECOMING S.
FRIDAY...IFR TO LIFR. S WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR. LIGHT SE WIND.
SATURDAY...IFR. S WIND, STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 25NM...NW WINDS SHIFT W TODAY
AND WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2FT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT S TONIGHT THEN S-SE ON TUESDAY AND BE LESS THAN 15KT.
SEAS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY AROUND 2FT.
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS...NW WINDS BELOW SCA GUSTING UP TO 20KT
THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING W TODAY AND BECOMING 10KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1FT OR LESS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT S TONIGHT THEN S-SE ON
TUESDAY AND BE LESS THAN 15KT. SEAS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY AROUND
1FT OR LESS.
SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE 39-43F FROM THE DOWNEAST
COAST OUT 25NM INCLUDING PASSAMAQUODDY AND PENOBSCOT BAYS.
SHORT TERM:
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY FOR SW WINDS BECOMING W WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 6 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN UP TO 8 FT OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SOUTH WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ARL/JS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...ARL/JS/MB
MARINE...ARL/JS/MB
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