230
FXUS61 KCAR 052321
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
621 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE HIGH EXITS EAST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW PASSING TO THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT, PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINE COAST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN EXITS
OVER THE MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY,
THEN CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE: AS NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING BEGINS TO SET IN,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO QUICKLY DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS NOT THICKENED
YET: ESTCOURT STATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO 10 BELOW,
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK HAS FALLEN BELOW ZERO, AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
BECOMES MORE DENSE, AND TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN RISE IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
-SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.
-NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT.
A MID LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE 925MB MODEL TEMPS SHOW AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS STARTS TO EXIT TO THE NE. THE REMAINING COLD AIRMASS
AND THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE CLEARER
SKIES IN THE NORTH AND CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH. THUS, TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE E, LEAVING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND ABOUT 0.5 INCHES IN
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR REGION. THE WARMER AIRMASS
PROGRESSING NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THICKEN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASE
TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTH TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THEN MOVING
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS TRACK GIVES MORE CONFIDENCE IN AN
ANTIDIURNAL TREND TO THE TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIP
ALONG THE TRANSITION LINE. BEGINNING BY MIDNIGHT, THE RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE WATERS, POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER
INTERIOR DOWNEAST, AND SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE AREAS TO THE
NORTH. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE RAIN WILL VERY GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST, MIXED PRECIP IN THE BANGOR
REGION, AND SNOW TO THE AREAS IN THE NORTH. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH
THE MODEL UPDATES IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THUS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2
INCHES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND VERY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS ENE ACROSS MAINE WEDNESDAY, THEN
EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO SOLID CONSENSUS THAT THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE SW GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO NEAR THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN TO SOME PLACE NEAR/IN BETWEEN PRINCE
EDWARD AND CAPE BRENTON ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN ON TO
NEWFOUNDLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK DOES TWO THINGS 1)
REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN PLAY FOR THE REGION AND 2) MOVES
THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN LINE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. SO NOW EXPECTING ALL SNOW NORTH OF A DANFORTH TO
BANGOR LINE, A MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FOR DOWNEAST MAINE
EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN HANCOCK AND NORTHERN AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW EXPECTING GENERALLY 1-3" OF
SNOW FROM THE WINTRY MIX ZONE ON NORTH (WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
4-5 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS),
AND UP TO AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IN THE
WINTRY MIX ZONE.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN WITH A CONSENSUS ON THE LOW
TRACK, WANT TO MAKE SURE IT HOLDS BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
FOR NOW THOUGH IT APPEARS SHOULD SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOWS ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR REGION NEEDING
AN ADVISORY - IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS, SO THEY SHOULD NOT CREATE ISSUES
WITH POWER LINES OR VISIBILITIES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. DID USE A BLEND OF 2 PARTS NBM50 AND 1 PART NBM25 TO
UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES AS THE NBM IS USUALLY TOO
WARM WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW WITH PRECIPITATION (WHICH IS EXPECTED
NOW WITH THE LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH). LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON
THURSDAY, WITH CONDITIONS DRY WITH DECREASING COVER AS A RESULT.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING APPEARING TO PHASE, WITH
THE AXIS EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING (NOTE THIS ASSUMES
THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN EXITING THE DEEP LAYERED IS, AS IT
VERY OFTEN IS IN THESE SCENARIOS). AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.
A DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE RESULT
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RAIN ELSEWHERE BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY.
IT SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, DO HAVE SOME
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN CASE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH
THE RIDGE AND NEXT SYSTEM SHOWN BY SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
CORRECT.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXITS EAST EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A
CLOSED LOW TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING
(WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH). THE
RESULT IS A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH, AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE, THOUGH NORTHERN
WASHINGTON/PENOBSCOT REGION COULD SEE THINGS TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH TO SPECIFY HOW MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH/RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM:
00Z UPDATE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS PRIOR TO CIGS QUICKLY DROPPING AS LIGHT
SNOW MOVES IN. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN LOWER CIGS FINALLY ARRIVE. NORTHERN TERMINALS
COULD REMAIN VFR ALL NIGHT, OR HIGH END MVFR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
AND THEN RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE DAY. BGR/BHB LIKELY TO REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY, EVEN AFTER SNOW
EXITS THE AREA. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FVE/CAR/PQI...VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. THEN VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY
TUESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TONIGHT,
TUESDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HUL/BGR/BHB...VFR FOR THIS EVENING AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW. THEN IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBY TUESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR
TONIGHT, TUESDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY: IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NE-NNW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. WNW-
NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. SE-SSW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR, WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
630 PM UPDATE: LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM AND LIMIT
THIS THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
TUESDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING, BEFORE PROBABLY RETURNING TO SCA LEVELS ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS THEN
PROBABLY CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE AGAIN ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AES/ARL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AES/ARL/PM
MARINE...AES/ARL/PM
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