842
FXUS61 KCAR 060730
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
223 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY NORTH WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY REMAINING DOWNEAST.
OUR FOCUS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON A SMALL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH A MIX OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE COAST. THE RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OUT. ONE CONCERN IS
THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY CHILLED IN OUR COLD
SPELL WHICH MAY ENHANCE FREEZING OF ANY RAIN, ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES. A GLAZE MAY FORM EVEN IF TEMPERATURES NUDGE
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THE VERY COLD GROUND
TEMPERATURES. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT, AND FOR SNOW UP
TO 4" ACROSS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY, LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE AWAY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS FAST MOVING LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES…
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND REACH ABOVE 32 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION. ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SNOW MELT DURING
THE DAY WHICH WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RECEDE
BELOW FREEZING BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND A HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW OVER THE NORTH.
2) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MAY
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER PASSING TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
THUS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE LIKELY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE PLAIN RAIN. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MAINE BUT HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE REACHES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY THE GFS GENERALLY SHOWS A
STRONGER, SLOWER, AND WARMER SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER, WEAKER, AND COLDER SOLUTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL BE
IMPORTANT AS IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION CAN
OCCUR. CURRENTLY NOT PREDICTING ANY NOTEWORTHY ICY CONDITIONS FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SETUP,
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING ON ROADS
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
OVER THE NORTH WITH RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THE WARM FRONT OF THE
SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO BE MORE DEFINITIVE ON IMPACTS AT THIS POINT.
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN EVOLUTION AND ESPECIALLY
TIMING.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM:
NORTH: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
THIS MORNING, DROPPING TO IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY, LIGHT EAST TONIGHT THEN LIGHT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH: IFR TO MVFR TODAY, DROPPING TO IFR THIS EVENING AND
REMAINING IFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT N TODAY, LIGHT E TONIGHT THEN
LIGHT N ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN VFR.
W/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FRIDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MVFR/VFR THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW
WINDS EARLY BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KTS.
SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR, WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF MVFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. N/NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE. E WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS.
SAT
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING BELOW CRITERIA IN
THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRIDAY
MORNING ON ALL WATERS WITH SEAS INCREASING ABOVE CRITERIA FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT SEAS STAY ELEVATED. GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM...SM
AVIATION...MB/SM
MARINE...MB/SM
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