252
FXUS61 KCAR 070000
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
700 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL
PISCATIQUIS COUNTY.
FOR FRIDAY MORNING, WE HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR/PENOBSCOT REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
2) LIGHT RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
3) POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE AND THE BANGOR/PENOBSCOT REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT, MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY, THEN EXITS INTO THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER SYSTEM SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SECONDARY LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, TRACKS TO EASTERN
NOVA SCOTIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TACK
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS TRACK AS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AS A
RESULT, THERE IS LESS PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE AREA AND
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY MIX HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH
AS WELL. BASED ON THIS, NOW ONLY EXPECT 1-3" OF SNOW OVER ZONE
10, AND NO FREEZING RAIN, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PISCATIQUIS COUNTY WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SNOW OVER ALL BUT COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE,
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS A WINTRY MIX. THE WINTRY MIX
SHOULD PUSH NORTH INTO NORTHERN HANCOCK/CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY AND FAR SE PENOBSCOT COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS COASTAL
DOWNEAST CHANGES TO ALL RAIN. THE WINTRY MIX AREA THEN EXPANDS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/WEST TO NEAR A BANGOR TO TOPSFIELD LINE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX CONTINUING IN THIS AREA
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS AREA, ONLY A LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING (SHOULD ONLY LAST INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE
US 1 CORRIDOR NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER WITH CANADA). GENERALLY
1-2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA, WITH UP TO 3" POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. IN THE WINTRY MIX AREA, UP TO 2" OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE (LESS THAN 1" ACROSS MOST OF DOWNEAST MAINE) WITH
UP TO 1/10TH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. IN AREAS WHERE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE WINTRY MIX, NO
CHANGE IN HEADLINES IS NEEDED.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE
WINDS SHOULD NOT EXACERBATE THE IMPACTS OF ANY FREEZING RAIN.
AS NOTED ABOVE, WITH THE REDUCED SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED, DID
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 10. NOTING THAT A
SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTH COULD RESULT IN MORE
SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER ZONE 31, HAVE
LEFT THE ADVISORY UP FOR SOUTHERN PISCATIQUIS COUNTY FOR NOW. IF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK INCREASES FURTHER, THIS
HEADLINE MAY BE DROPPED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID 20S), BUT OCCUR MAINLY IN THE EVENING (SOUTH)/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ELSEWHERE) BEFORE HOLDING STEADY, THEN SLOWLY
RISING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S) - DID BLEND IN NBM50 WITH NBM
TEMPERATURES TO REDUCE HIGHS WITH PRECIPITATION AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(MID TEENS TO MID 20S).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LIGHT RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY...
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FRIDAY, BUT BEFORE IT GETS
ABOVE FREEZING, WE DO HAVE A CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS
MOST LIKELY WOULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE DAY GOES ON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST LOW CLOUDS, WHICH IF THICK
ENOUGH COULD LEAD TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THE LEAST, MANY
ROAD SURFACES COULD BECOME ICY WITH THE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW,
AS TYPICALLY HAPPENS WITH A QUICK WARMUP AT THE END OF A LONG
ARCTIC COLD SPELL.
ONCE TEMPERATURES TOP FREEZING BY MIDDAY DOWNEAST, WE MAY BE
LOOKING SOME STEADIER LIGHT RAIN LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SURFACES COULD STAY ICY EVEN AFTER
IT GETS ABOVE FREEZING. OVER THE NORTH, ANY SNOW WITH FRIDAY'S
EVENT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF ANY LIKELY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE, AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE BIGGER CONCERN. LIKE DOWNEAST, OVER THE
NORTH, ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON COULD STILL MAKE FOR ICY
SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING FREEZING BY DAY'S END,
AS IT'S BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG. RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK LIGHT, ON THE TUNE OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. NO RIVER
BREAKUP OR FLOODING EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT TOTAL SNOWPACK LOSS
FOR A FEW THINNER SPOTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT
THINK THAT MOST AREAS WILL RETAIN SOME SNOWPACK.
ALL AREAS WILL SEE A SOUTH WIND WITH FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH
PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO ANY TREE OR POWER IMPACTS. DO EXPECT
ENOUGH OF A SOUTH WIND AND FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO PENETRATE INLAND EASILY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING READILY ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THERE ISN'T MUCH COLD AIR, SO ALTHOUGH IT
COULD BARELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE SYSTEM
EXITS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A FLASH FREEZE OF ROADS/SIDEWALKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF COLD
AIR TO WORK WITH FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION TYPE
(RAIN VS SNOW) IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THAT SAID, THERE IS A
LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND IF IT FALLS AS SNOW, IT COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT (MORE THAN 6 INCHES). THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS IN THE NORTH, WHERE SNOW IS FAVORED OVER
RAIN 2 TO 1. DOWNEAST, RAIN IS FAVORED 2 TO 1. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE A PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
WITH THE PRIMARY LOW WEAKENING AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING
AND PASSING EITHER OVER OUR AREA OR TO OUR SOUTH. THE FURTHER
SOUTH THAT TRIPLE POINT LOW PASSES, THE COOLER THAN SYSTEM AND
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SNOW. THERE IS A BIT OF A MODEL TREND
TOWARD A COOLER/SNOWIER SOLUTION, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. IF AND
WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR, BLOWING SNOW COULD BE AN ISSUE AFTER IT
ENDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z UPDATE:
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR FZRA AT BGR. THOUGH IT
COULD REMAIN ALL SNOW THERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE BOARD
SHOW A WARM NOSE OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z, AND
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SN AND FZRA POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR TO GET STARTED BECOMES MVFR
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, THEN LIFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT AND IFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AT AROUND 5 KTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING NW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: KBGR/KGNR/KBHB TRENDING TOWARDS VFR, WHILE N
TERMINALS CIGS STAY IFR/BECOMING MVFR LATE. NW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
THURSDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN VFR.
W/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR LATE IN THE NIGHT TOWARD 12Z.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FRIDAY: IFR OR LOWER. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT RAIN. S WINDS 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR/VFR THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW
WINDS EARLY BECOMING W AROUND 10 KTS.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR WITH IFR OR LOWER ALSO
POSSIBLE, WITH RAIN AND SNOW. E WINDS SWITCHING TO THE W 10-15
KTS.
MARINE
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY,
THOUGH SEAS COULD STILL BE AROUND 5 FT THURSDAY. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOUTH GALES LATE FRIDAY, THEN SUB-SMALL CRAFT WINDS
SATURDAY, THEN 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES SUNDAY TO EARLY
MONDAY, WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH, SWITCHING TO THE WEST. SEAS
PEAK AROUND 8 FT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTH SWELL, WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 8 FT SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...AES/TF/PM
MARINE...TF/PM
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