296
FXUS61 KCAR 071437
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM TODAY HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH
AND THUS FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO CENTRAL AND COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. THUS,
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES.
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE JUST AHEAD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH A MIX OF SNOW, RAIN, AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING
2) PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
3) POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH A MIX OF SNOW, RAIN, AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
930AM UPDATE - WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT KBGR AND
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE - THE
FORECAST OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MOST OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE
BANGOR REGION APPEARS ON TRACK. FARTHER NORTH - THE FORECAST FOR
1-3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS ON TRACK AS WELL. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES FOR NOW.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN THAT WILL BE RESOLVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IS
THAT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MIGHT LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. WITH THE FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW - COULD
END UP NEEDING TO EXTEND THE END TIME OF HEADLINES - ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR SE MAINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK,
THEN UNDERGO SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IN THE THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST, PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE INTENSIFYING, LATER TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE DOWNEAST REGION, PARTICULARLY CENTRAL AND COASTAL HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, IS WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN EXISTS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH SO
SLIPPERY ROADS AND SURFACES, NOT TREE DAMAGE OR POWER OUTAGES,
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE BANGOR
REGION CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SEEM UNLIKELY GIVEN THE MORE
SOUTHERN TREND OF THE STORM TRACK.
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL DOWNEAST AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF ROUTE 1
THROUGH MID-DAY ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN TO HOLD ON THERE WHILE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
BY MID-MORNING. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THOSE REGIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
JUST AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AT ONSET. ALL TOLD EXPECT A GLAZE OF ICE AND A DUSTING OF SNOW
BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING FROPA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY
SATURATED WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BLO FREEZING AND ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
UPR LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE TWD THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS BLYR REMAINS DRY COURTESY OF RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
AREA. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA, AS WELL AS HOW FAST TEMPS
CAN DROP BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN.
COLD AIR DAMMING IS BEING SHOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS OF THIS TIME
THERE ARE HINTS OF A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THOUGH
SIGNS ARE POINTING TO SNOW BEGINNING AT ONSET BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE TRIPLE
POINT CAN DEVELOP WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE NORTH STAYS ALL SNOW.
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD BRING BLOWING SNOW TO SOME OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY: CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR, WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR AT TIMES AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR AT BGR/BHB THIS
MORNING WITH -RASN, IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO IFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF. -FZRA POSSIBLE AT BHB THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN TAF.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOME TEMPORARY -FZRA AT BGR THROUGH MID-DAY
AND THUS DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
TONIGHT: BGR AND BHB SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR FIRST, AND POSSIBLY
VFR LATE, WITH HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON TO IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. N/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN VFR.
W/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WSW WINDS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY. S 5-15KTS FRIDAY
BECOMING W 10-20KTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW 5-15KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WINTRY MIX. ENE 5KTS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING S-W 5-10KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY BEFORE SEAS
INCREASE TO JUST ABOVE CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS TONIGHT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL GALES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AOA SCA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
BRIEFLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY BECOMING ELEVATED
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/PM/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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