857
FXUS61 KCAR 080003
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
703 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING DOWNEAST,
WHICH COMBINED WITH REFREEZING ROAD SURFACES IS LEADING TO ICY
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TRENDING TOWARDS A COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN TAPERING OFF BY
LATE TONIGHT
2) PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER AROOSTOOK COUNTY
3) POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN TAPERING OFF BY
LATE TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OVER NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LATER OVERNIGHT FOR DOWNEAST MAINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF CLOUD ICE WITH A SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN -1 AND -10C IN THE LOWEST 5-10KFT AGL. DESPITE
PROFILES OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW, A LACK OF CLOUD ICE WILL
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BELOW FREEZING DOWNEAST
CAUSING SURFACES TO FREEZE. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO ICY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, SO AN SPS WAS ISSUED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER AROOSTOOK COUNTY
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING, SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A S FLOW. MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION, THUS DECIDED TO ADD MORE
DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF DRIZZLE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR
NOT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING AND REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY STORM. AS OF THIS UPDATE, MODELS SHOW AN OCCLUSION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
WATERS. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COOLER TEMP TREND
WITH THE SYSTEM WITH A POSSIBLE WARM NOSE AT THE MID LEVELS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A MIXED PRECIP SCENARIO AS OF THIS UPDATE,
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE IT OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SPECIFICALLY IF
THE CAD SETS UP AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIRMASS. DECIDED TO STICK
WITH THE NBM WHICH HAS RAIN IN DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY. AREAS TO
THE NORTH SHOULD SEE SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT: MAINLY MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF VFR AT
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. IFR FOR HUL AND DOWNEAST
TERMINALS, IMPROVING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR LATER TONIGHT.
-SN, -FZDZ, AND -FZRA IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
BUT PARTICULARLY KBGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS SUCH AS KBHB. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY: MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BECOMING VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR SOUTH. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY. S
5-15KTS FRIDAY BECOMING W 10-20KTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW 5-15KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WINTRY MIX. ENE 5KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING S-W 5-10KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WNW WINDS 5-10
KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. W WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO
6 FEET WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY TO ADDRESS THE WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT, AND SEAS WILL FALL DURING THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FEET EARLIER IN THE MORNING, SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ADVISORY END TIMING. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA
LEVEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS 5-9 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM/MWS
AVIATION...ARL/MWS
MARINE...ARL/MWS
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