554
FXUS61 KCAR 080702
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
202 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT RAIN EVENT.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING FOG TONIGHT WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET FRIDAY,
BECOMING ALL RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FREEZING FOG TONIGHT WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET FRIDAY,
BECOMING ALL RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW THAT WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTH. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN AMPLE WARM, MOIST
AIR OVER TOP A COLD SNOWPACK ALLOWING FOR FOG TO EASILY DEVELOP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION FORMING WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SIGNS THAT
POINT TO FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOW IMPACTFUL THE FREEZING
FOG WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS GENERALLY DENSE FREEZING FOG
LEADS TO ICING CONCERNS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNATURE FOR DRIZZLE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HOW MUCH WILL
FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING. THINKING THAT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING PREVENTS
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING QUICKLY. SOME SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE
THE COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT ICING IS NO LONGER A
CONCERN AND PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SNOW MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE. WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO OCCUR
NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR DAMMING
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF CWA. WARM NOSE AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH DOWNEAST, THE BANGOR REGION AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH
AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM NOSE WILL MAKE IT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY: VFR BY EARLY MORNING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. W/NW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
THE MORNING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. S 5-15KTS BECOMING W 10-20KTS LATE
GUSTING TO 20-30KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW 5-15KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WINTRY MIX. NNE 5KTS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING E-NE 5-10KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR MONDAY. WNW 5-15KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: GALES FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING, REMAINING BELOW SCA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THEY BECOME MARGINAL OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GALES LIKELY ON MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10FT BEFORE
DROPPING BLO 5FT ALL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SWELL
KICKS IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO BETWEEN 5 TO 8
FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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