876
FXUS61 KCAR 082346
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
646 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THIS UPDATE:
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING CLOUDS
REMAINING IN PLACE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATED. A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LOW TEMPERATURES WAS MADE, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
WITH THE PM FORECAST PACKAGE EARLIER TODAY:
ADDED CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICY TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
WINTER STORM FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH, AND
IN ANY WINTRY MIX BEING CONFINED TO DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING FOG TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING, BECOMING ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MIDDAY FRIDAY TO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS
AND BRANCHES.
3) WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FREEZING FOG TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING, BECOMING ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MIDDAY FRIDAY TO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANYWHERE THIS FOG FORMS COULD BE
SUBJECT TO ICY ROADS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, AND AS THE LOW CLOUD
LAYER THICKENS, THERE'S A TIME WINDOW FROM ABOUT 6AM-10AM WHEN
WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY,
BUT OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
REALLY ANYWHERE IN THE AREA IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FREEZING FOG
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES FIRST CREEP ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MID-MORNING FRIDAY, GET ABOVE FREEZING NEAR BANGOR AROUND
MIDDAY, THEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, STEADIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT (ABOUT A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED MOST
PLACES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING), IT COULD BE IMPACTFUL TO
TRAVEL CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO COLD, MANY ROADS, ESPECIALLY SIDE
ROADS WILL TAKE TIME FOR ROAD TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE REGULAR RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 30S ACTING LIKE FREEZING RAIN ON SOME SURFACES. IN
THE NORTH, THE PM PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SMORGASBORD, WITH ALL
TYPES IN PLAY: SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, RAIN. WE DON'T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY ONE TYPE, WITH SNOW LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH,
SLEET A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT BEST, AND FREEZING RAIN LESS
THAN 0.05. THAT SAID, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE TRAVEL
ISSUES. SIDE ROADS COULD STAY TREACHEROUS INTO FRIDAY EVENING
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SLIP AND FALL HAZARD ON DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ISN'T THAT COLD THOUGH,
AND ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO AROUND FREEZING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WE DON'T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN BEFORE THE FRONT, AND WE SHOULD
BE SEEING GUSTS 30-35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR HILLTOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS
AND BRANCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WE DON'T EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS. ONE WILDCARD IS THE
REMOVAL OF ICE AND SNOW ON BRANCHES, WHICH IS BENDING OVER
BRANCHES IN MANY PLACES PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE NORTH. AS THE
WINDS PICK UP AND TEMPERATURES RISE, SNOW/ICE WILL MELT OFF
BRANCHES, THE BRANCHES COULD SPRING UPWARD AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE
VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS RANGE FROM 30 KT AT
950 TO 60 KT AT 850 MB. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEGREES
C/KM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL AROUND/JUST AFTER 12Z SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW BEING
SOLIDLY TO THE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A POSITIVELY TILTED CUTOFF LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A 700 MB SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST, HELPING TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING, THAT TRACKS TO ENE OF CAPE COD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS CUTOFF LOW TRACKS TO JUST WEST OF MONTREAL BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS CUTOFF LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND INTO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK/SW GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY
MONDAY MORNING, AS IT DEVELOPS A MORE NEUTRAL TILT.
BASED ON THIS TRACK, COUPLED WITH SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE,
FROM MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, EXCEPT NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST MAINE COAST, WHERE A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE WINTRY MIX EXPANDS TO COVER ALL OF
COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL HANCOCK AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOVING
INTO BANGOR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTRY MIX THEN
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW, EVEN AT THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD
AIR IS ADVECTED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THE SNOW THEN
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW EXIT TO THE ENE.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM
TRACK CONTINUES TO ADJUST TO THE SOUTH) FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BANGOR/PENOBSCOT REGION AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH ANY WINTRY MIX
ENDS UP GETTING. IF THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ABOUT THIS FAR SOUTH
OR EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH, THE CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOW IN
THIS REGION WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
THAT ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST
MAINE.
EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FLOW,
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING OF AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
25-30KT, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY A FOOT, COUPLED WITH TIDAL
RANGES HEADING TO A MINIMUM FOR THE MONTH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT OR RISK OF BEACH EROSION. WINDS SHIFT
OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT...GENERALLY MVFR TONIGHT INITIALLY, WITH KBGR AND KBHB
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. THEN WE COULD SEE AN IFR OR
POSSIBLE LIFR CEILING DEVELOP WITH -FZDZ OR FZFG. DUE TO MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING LONGER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN WHEN, OR EVEN IF, THIS LOW CEILING DEVELOPS. THE TIMING
WILL MOST LIKELY BE AFTER 6Z GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS, AND IT WAS
ADDRESSED VIA A PROB30 FOR MOST TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
FRIDAY...MOSTLY IFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. -FZDZ OR FZFG
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING (ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE). ANY
PM PRECIPITATION AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIKE BGR/BHB WILL BE
RAIN, BUT NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD BE ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE
INCLUDING RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, OR SNOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT HOWEVER. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE MORNING
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR TO START OUT, IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
MAINLY AFTER 6Z. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS
IN THE EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER 6Z AND REMAINING
GUSTY. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT PROBABLE IN
THE MORNING, NW WINDS G15-25KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER BECOMING LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY SNOW ALONG/N OF
A BANGOR TO CALAIS LINE, WITH A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF THERE. ENE
WINDS 15-25KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. NW WINDS G15-30KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR. WSW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE LIKELY
(75 PERCENT CHANCE) TO BE AROUND GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH WINDS SWITCH TO
THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAIN GUSTY. SEAS WILL PEAK AS
HIGH AS 9 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GUST TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE THIS TIME FRAME IN A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME, SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO SUB-SCA ON ALL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH CONDITIONS JUST
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS SUNDAY EVENING, THEN GALES PROBABLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ON THE INTRA COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME SCA THROUGHOUT
MONDAY EVENING, WITH SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...TF/PM/MWS
MARINE...TF/PM
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