952
FXUS61 KCAR 091104
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
604 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE PREVENTED LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES FROM BECOMING SATURATED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH.
COLDER SOLUTION FOR STORM OVER SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKELY
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADIER PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN, ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN.
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN THE NORTH. THIS COULD BRING DOWN
SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO, POSSIBLY, SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STEADIER PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN, ARRIVES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MAY MIX IN. TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE HAS PREVENTED COOLING OF THE SURFACE AND THUS SATURATION
OF THE LOW-LEVELS. THUS, FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS UNLIKELY AND
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. SOME FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP THIS MORNING AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IT COULD BE FREEZING FOG.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVING IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AND GENERALLY BY MID AFTERNOON
FURTHER NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
ALL RAIN IN THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGION. MORE OF A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FURTHER NORTH. WHILE RAIN WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY
LOW AS THE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL, BUT IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING
THAT ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY STILL GET ICY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
COLD WEATHER, EVEN IF THE AIR TEMPERATURE GETS ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN THE NORTH. THIS COULD BRING
DOWN SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT BUT THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MID MORNING TOMORROW.
THE GREATEST THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHERN MAINE AND
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING 50-60 KT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. CURRENTLY EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH
30-35 KTS BUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT IF THERE
ARE SHOWERS THIS COULD FURTHER HELP TO MIX STRONG GUSTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO, POSSIBLY, SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER WAVE DIVING INTO THE UPPER PRAIRIE PROVINCES IN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE WEEKEND. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NY BIGHT
WITH PRECIP SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AS THE COLUMN SATURATES DOWN WITH
LOCATIONS WET-BULBING DOWN TO SNOW AT ONSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACRS THE NORTH AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.
COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE DAMMED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION TO THE
SFC LOW, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXED PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
AREAS AS THE "WARM NOSE" LOOKS TO BE AS WARM AS -3C OVER THE COLD
AIR DAMMED AREAS, THUS MAINTAINING ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
ONLY AREAS IN QUESTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INTO
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST. HOWEVER, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE NBM GOING TOO WARM IN THESE INSTANCES, HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AT THIS TIME A RAIN/SNOW MIX LOOKS TO BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY
SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT SOME POINT ON
SUNDAY.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT END OF THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES NORTH OF BANGOR DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACRS THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS LOOK TO CASH IN ON THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR RESULTING
IN HIGHER SLRS. WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT HEADS INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT, BETTER LIFT OCCURS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES FALLING OVERNIGHT. ALL TOLD
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SNOW FOR HIGH END WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS, MEANING
BETWEEN 5-8 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURES WARM UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER ALL LOCATIONS
ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS AND VFR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT NO LONGER EXPECTING
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR BY THE EVENING.
ALL PRECIP TYPES POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH MAINLY RAIN AT BGR AND BHB. LIGHT S
WINDS IN THE MORNING INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH LIFR ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY. ALL PRECIP
TYPES IN THE NORTH AND RAIN BGR/BHB SHOULD TAPER OFF FIRST AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS IN THE EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER 6Z AND REMAINING
GUSTY AT 25-30 KTS. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT PROBABLE IN
THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW, WITH WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE AT BHB. NNE 5KTS SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING E-NE 5-10KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW 10-20KTS GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TEMPO MVFR/IFR NORTH IN LOW CIGS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. WSW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WINDS INCREASE TO GALES ON ALL WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN
DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD
TO A PEAK OF 6 TO 11 FT TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS INCREASE TOWARD MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASING
TOWARD GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA SCA LEVELS THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SEAS INCREASE ABOVE
5FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY SWELL AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWELL BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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