237
FXUS61 KCAR 100244
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
944 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHAT CHANGED WITH THE 935PM UPDATE:
-RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.
-ELIMINATED SLEET FOR NEXT TWO HOURS, AS IT APPEARS ALL PLACES,
EVEN THE ST JOHN VALLEY, HAVE GONE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
WHAT CHANGED WITH THE 520PM UPDATE:
-RAISED WINDS/GUSTS SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
WHAT CHANGED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON:
-REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH.
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ABRUPTLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT
IN THE RISK OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
2) A PERIOD OF RAIN THIS EVENING.
3) SIGNIFICANT SNOW MOVING IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVER HALF A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
4) A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
5) ARCTIC AIR RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO LOWS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
GET STRONGER. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
520PM UPDATE, INCREASED THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH FOR
THE STRONG WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW POWER OUTAGES. WINDS EASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PERIOD OF RAIN THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY
REMAINING SLEET/SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTH HAS ENDED AS OF 935PM,
AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTH, AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE. THE RAIN IS LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A BIT ABOVE FREEZING, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY FLOODING OR ICE BREAK UP ON RIVERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MOVING IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVER HALF A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD COLD AIR
IN PLACE AS OVERUNNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A MIX
DOWNEAST. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE A DRY
INTRUSION SURGING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
COAST, FORMING ON A TRIPLE POINT, LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO ADHERE
CLOSELY TO A JET MAX RUNNING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
NORTHEAST OFF NOVA SCOTIA. A DRY INTRUSION BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
LAKES LOW AND THE NEW LOW OFFSHORE MAY LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY LIMITING SNOW INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH
OVERRUNNING AND QPF SHOULD AT LEAST BRING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE MARITIMES AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL PULL A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
ABRUPTLY FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN ICY AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
ARCTIC AIR RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SUBZERO LOWS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WILL
PUSH ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON BRISK NORTH WINDS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 DOWNEAST. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH TO
THE MID TEENS NEAR THE COAST.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z, EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE,
WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS, LLWS, AND
RAIN. FROM 6-9Z, WINDS SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND TO
WEST AND INCREASE, WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 8-11Z. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE NORTH (FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL/GNR) WITH
GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 KTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BHB/BGR
SHOULD PEAK WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. AS THE WIND SHIFTS, EXPECT
RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS, WITH VFR BY ABOUT 10Z AREAWIDE.
VFR PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS EASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, BECOMING LIGHT BY 0Z SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR OR LESS AFT 06Z SUNDAY IN DEVELOPING SNOW.
SUNDAY...IFR. LIGHT E WIND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR NORTH. IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR SOUTH. NW WIND
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY LATE.
MONDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR NORTH. VFR SOUTH. GUSTY W WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR NORTH EARLY AND MVFR SOUTH
LATE. LIGHT SW WIND.
TUESDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR. SW WIND BECOMING S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR THEN IFR. GUSTY S WIND.
WEDNESDAY...IFR. MODERATE S WIND.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EAST WINDS WILL BE SCA SUNDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA THEN GALE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DROP BACK TO SCA ON MONDAY. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
SCA LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WED. SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 5 FT ON SUNDAY THEN 9 FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 5 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING NEAR 5 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
010-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...TF/TWD
AVIATION...MB/TF/TWD
MARINE...MB/TF/TWD
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