734
FXUS61 KCAR 100735
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
235 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING
ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR DOWNEAST MAINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE.
ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING MELTWATER ON ROADS LEADING TO SLICK
TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
2) A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE DOWNEAST.
3) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
4) FALLING TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN SLICK
ROADS IMPACTING TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
50 TO 60 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF A MIXED LAYER. EXPECTING SOME
OF THIS TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS 40 TO
50 MPH. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW EFFICIENTLY WINDS ARE MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A VERY SHALLOW AND
WEAK INVERSION RIGHT AT THE SURFACE, LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE COLD
SNOWPACK. UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THIS WILL IMPACT SURFACE GUSTS BUT IT
COULD MEAN SOME GUSTS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE EXPECTED
RANGE. OVERALL, THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WIND WILL BE A FEW
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. PEAK WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-6AM, DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH SHOULD HELP KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
AREA TO REMAIN AS SNOW. SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT SHOULD
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF SOME SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 9 WITH RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT SETS
UP. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TO
THE NORTH AND A WINTRY MIX DOWNEAST AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS
AND INTENSIFIES WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN SLEET THAN
FREEZING RAIN. THE AMOUNT AND WHERE FREEZING RAIN SETS UP WILL
DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR INLAND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
PENETRATE.
A LIGHTENING OR BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AROUND
MID-DAY SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MOVES IN. THE SECONDARY
LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE CONSIDERABLY INTENSIFIES AND A SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW IN ALL AREAS AS THE LOW
WRAPS COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY WILL BE DEEPENING WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. WINDS AROUND 900MB INCREASE TO BETWEEN
35-40KTS AND 24HR MAX QMD WIND GUST FROM NBM5.0 INDICATES 35-40KTS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. BUMPED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
ORIGINAL NBM AND FAVORED AREAS SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40
MPH ON EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE ONLY WORDED IT AS PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH WITH SNOW FALLING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z
OVER THE NORTHEAST AGRICULTURAL AREAS, THIS MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED
TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING
SNOW ON EAST-WEST ROADS DOWNWIND OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
FALLING TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN SLICK
ROADS IMPACTING TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH MODELS ON HOW FAST TEMPS
DROPS ON THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO ENERGY MOVING OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WHERE IT GOES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ARCTIC FRONT FROM MOVING THRU CWA
CLEANLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR WILL IT SLOW IT/S ARRIVAL? 2M TEMPS
FROM LATEST DESI RUN IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH ANY ONE
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, THE IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT TO TRAVEL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IF STANDING WATER LEFT
BEHIND FROM RAIN ON WEDNESDAY CAN REFREEZE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS BY ABOUT 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
WINDS PEAK AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST WINDS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND TO MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT A MIX POSSIBLE AT BHB. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME NE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE MORNING.
SUNDAY...IFR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WITH A MIX AT BHB.
N/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN SNOW NORTH. IFR IN SNOW DOWNEAST
TERMINALS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. NW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MVFR NORTH EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR, TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN
BLSN. VFR SOUTH. NW 10-20KTS GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS IN THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, TEMPO MVFR/IFR NORTH IN LOW CIGS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. WSW 5-15KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IR IN SNOW NORTH, RAIN DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE.
S 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR NORTH IN SNOW EARLY, RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON.
IFR DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN RAIN. S 5-15KTS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GALES DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NW WINDS AOA GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALL WATERS. WINDS MAINTAIN MARGINAL SCA
LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING TO
5FT TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. MARGINAL SCA LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-
031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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