345
FXUS61 KCAR 261411
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
911 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 9 AM UPDATE: STRATIFORM SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BANDED ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE NORTH, BUT COULD BE BREEZY
CLOSER TO THE COAST, AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH
BEHIND THE STORM THIS EVENING COULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
- SMALL DECREASE IN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS NORTH OF HOULTON
- CHANGED TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
2) SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW TOTALS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. HIGH RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE SURFACE CAUSING QPF AMOUNTS TO DECREASE. A
COUPLE OF PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY TO CAUSE THIS. FIRST, THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TYPICALLY HAS LESS MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY. SECOND, A MID LEVEL TROF HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OF THE STATE. THIS HAS CREATED A SECONDARY VORT MAX BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW, WHICH HAS PRODUCE A SURFACE TROF. AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW BECOMES CLOSED OFF AND INTENSIFIES, THE MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM BECOMES TRAPPED OVER THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW SHOWER, WITH POSSIBLE HEAVIER
BANDS AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH. BY TONIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATION BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH LIFR VSBY IN SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS. NE WIND 5-10 KTS TODAY, THEN N WIND 5-15 KTS TONIGHT.
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KBGR/KBHB AND ACROSS OTHER
COASTAL TERMINALS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY ADDITIONALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITY AT THESE TERMINALS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD THIS DETAIL INTO THE TAFS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY NORTH. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.
MARINE
9 AM UPDATE: THE THREAT OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 1 PM. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
MARGINAL GALES THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF GALES. SEAS
PEAK AT 8 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
EVERYWHERE TODAY AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, FALLING
BELOW 25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL HANG ON FOR LONGER,
WITH SEAS 5 TO 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/ARL/CN
AVIATION...AES/ARL/CN
MARINE...AES/ARL/CN
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