364
FXUS61 KCAR 271050
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
550 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 550AM UPDATE: CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE WATERS AND
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT
- ADDED FLURRIES FOR TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLURRIES IN THE NORTH AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
2) A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
3) A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FLURRIES IN THE NORTH AND COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXITS TO THE E. THE 925MB MODEL
TEMPS STILL SHOW THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS
AS LOW AS -18C. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN
THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF LABRADOR WILL BEGIN
TO WRAP MODIFIED MARITIME AIR BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE
FROM THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. THE WEAK LIFT COULD SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS, OR POSSIBLY EVEN A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, ACROSS MOSTLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT COULD PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
AGAIN IMPACTING MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ONLY
SUPPORT MINOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS THEN HAVE THE INTENSIFYING LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK STILL EXISTS. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CIGS IFR VSBY IN SNOW FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
NW WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR, NORTH
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. GENERALLY VFR
DOWNEAST. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH.
VFR DOWNEAST. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT RETURNS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
WATERS, TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON. NW
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLE MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
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