247
FXUS61 KCAR 280750
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
250 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS THROUGH
10 AM THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN OVERRUNNING EVENT BEGINS TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY.
2) POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
3) UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN OVERRUNNING EVENT BEGINS TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF LABRADOR WILL BEGIN
TO WRAP MODIFIED MARITIME AIR BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY. THE WEAK LIFT WILL SUPPORT A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
MAINE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A BACKDOOR WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE NBM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY WASHING OUT THE
SYSTEM, SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO POP AND QPF. SNOW
RATIOS WERE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FORECAST
PROFILES WITH LIFT CENTERED WITHIN A BROAD DGZ. THIS WILL BE A
VERY FLUFFY SNOW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FEW INCHES OVER
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY IF HIGHER QPF SOLUTIONS OCCUR. MOST
OF THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF BAXTER
STATE PARK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REACH THE COAST
SATURDAY EVENING, CAUSING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR JUST
OFFSHORE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, WITH SURFACE PRESSURES
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 970MB ON MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW TRACK REMAINS EVEN ON THE LATEST
0Z MODEL CYCLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 6 INCH OR GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST 2 CYCLES, BUT STILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT FOR COASTAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
HOWEVER, THE RECENT 18Z AND 0Z CYCLES OF THE EPS AND GEFS HAVE
CORRECTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. IF A FURTHER NORTHWEST
TRACK OCCURS, IT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, PARTICULARLY
CONSIDERING THERE IS ALREADY A DEEP FLUFFY SNOWPACK FROM THE
MOST RECENT STORM. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT WITH
POTENTIALLY MAJOR IMPACTS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. VFR/MVFR THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS TODAY, 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR NORTH WITH -SN LIKELY, MAINLY
VFR FOR BGR AND DOWNEAST. WNW WIND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WNW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND A MODEST NNE WIND, OR IFR OR LOWER WITH
STRONG NNE WINDS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ATLANTIC. COASTAL AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS HAVE GREATER
CHANCES OF GREATER IMPACTS.
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW WINDS GUSTS
COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS LIKELY AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH A POTENTIAL (30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS, SEAS OVER 15 FEET, AND POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW. IF THE SYSTEM MISSES FURTHER SOUTH,
GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY (70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE).
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...MWS/CN
AVIATION...MWS/CN
MARINE...MWS/CN
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