545
FXUS61 KCAR 282044 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
344 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN MAINE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR WHAT IMPACTS A
COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE ON NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE FROM
SUNDAY-MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
2) UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SLIGHTLY WARMER, MOISTER AIRMASS ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AS PART OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DONE, WE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS AND QPF THAN
NBM HAD, AS NBM TYPICALLY IS TOO DRY FOR SCENARIOS LIKE THIS.
THIS SAID, THIS IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG EVENT BY ANY STRETCH
OF THE IMAGINATION, AND WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS FROM ROUGHLY
GREENVILLE/MILLINOCKET/DANFORTH NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
WILL LIKELY BE UP TOWARD THE ST JOHN VALLEY, WHERE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW PLACES GETTING UP AROUND 3 OR 4 INCHES. GENERALLY
EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CROWN OF MAINE, THOUGH.
THIS WILL BE A FLUFFY, LOW WATER-CONTENT SNOW WITH SNOW RATIOS
20-25:1. THERE WILL BE WEST BREEZE 5-10 MPH WITH THE SNOW, WHICH
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY BLOWING SNOW MINOR AND VERY
LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SE US FROM FRI-SAT, DEVELOPS
INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. THEY ALSO
DIFFER ON HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THIS WILL OCCUR. THEY ALL AGREE
THAT THE LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA, BUT HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN - WITH TIMING
RANGING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED TO LIMIT POPS OVERLAND
(INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OFF THE MAINE COAST) SUNDAY-MONDAY TO AT
MOST CHANCE - WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MORE TO THE S/E WITH THIS RUN AND SOME
OTHERS SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE N/W. IF THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING, IT IS THAT THE NORTH IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL DATA, COASTAL
DOWNEAST HAS AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF THIS ACROSS THE NORTH GENERALLY LESS THAN
20% FOR THIS SYSTEM.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW RAPIDLY THE STORM
STRENGTHENS, YOU COULD SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER COASTAL
DOWNEAST AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF 35-40MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH GUSTS OF 30MPH OR LESS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH, OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO RIGHT AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST. BECAUSE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FLUFFY SNOW,
THESE WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE AS WELL.
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE WINDS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE, MINIMAL IF
ANY IMPACTS FROM TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS FROM HUL NORTH UNTIL 21Z OR 22Z,
THEN CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. VFR DOWNEAST
INCLUDING BHB/BGR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
TONIGHT...
VFR AREAWIDE WITH W WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...
VFR THROUGH 18Z, THEN MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH BY 0Z, BUT LIKELY REMAINING VFR BGR/BHB. W WIND 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE FROM HUL NORTH TO
PQI/CAR/FVE, WITH LIGHT SNOW. VFR BHB/BGR. W WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING IN
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW-N WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING. LLWS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, NE WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN
SNOW, MOST LIKELY VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. N WINDS G25-40KT
POSSIBLE, STRONGEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MONDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. NW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AROUND 4PM. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK
BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS REACHING
LOW END GALE LEVELS (ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE). SEAS 2-5 FT.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLE
ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO PROBABLE ON THE WATERS FRIDAY.
A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GALES ARE LIKELY WITH
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, WITH
GALES PROBABLE ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...TF/PM
MARINE...TF/PM
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