743
FXUS61 KCAR 290253
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 9:53PM UPDATE...BLENDED IN MORE NBM90TH PERCENTILE FOR
WINDS/GUSTS ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOOSEHEAD REGION AND NORTH WOODS WEST
OF BAXTER STATE PARK. HI-RES CAMS, NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TOMORROW NIGHT UP TO 4KFT
WHERE WINDS ARE BEING MODELED AT 30-35KT. THIS IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30MPH IN THIS
REGION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING -5F TO 0F HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN FRIGID WIND CHILLS. MUCH OF THIS REGION CAN
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO RANGE -26F TO -25F TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SO OPTED TO HOIST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
WIND CHILLS IN NORTHERN & CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
- 6:53PM UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE MOOSEHEAD
REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WOODS. NO CBW/GYX ECHOS BUT
WEBCAMS VERIFY THE PRESENTS OF FLURRIES WITH VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ON LAND AND OVER THE
WATERS. ADDED SOME HI-RES CAMS AND NBM75TH PERCENTILE TO BUMP
UP GUSTS. GIVEN THESE CHANGES HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE WATERS WITH MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM 1PM THURSDAY TILL 1PM FRIDAY. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
THAT SCA RUNS FROM 4PM THURSDAY TILL 7AM FRIDAY. HAVE HOISTED
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS FROM 7PM
THURSDAY TILL 1PM FRIDAY. FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY,
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 3
TO 5 FT EXPECTED. FOR THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING
THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN MAINE.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR WHAT IMPACTS A
COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE ON NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE FROM
SUNDAY-MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
2) UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SLIGHTLY WARMER, MOISTER AIRMASS ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AS PART OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THIS WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DONE, WE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS AND QPF THAN
NBM HAD, AS NBM TYPICALLY IS TOO DRY FOR SCENARIOS LIKE THIS.
THIS SAID, THIS IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG EVENT BY ANY STRETCH
OF THE IMAGINATION, AND WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS FROM ROUGHLY
GREENVILLE/MILLINOCKET/DANFORTH NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
WILL LIKELY BE UP TOWARD THE ST JOHN VALLEY, WHERE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW PLACES GETTING UP AROUND 3 OR 4 INCHES. GENERALLY
EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CROWN OF MAINE, THOUGH.
THIS WILL BE A FLUFFY, LOW WATER-CONTENT SNOW WITH SNOW RATIOS
20-25:1. THERE WILL BE WEST BREEZE 5-10 MPH WITH THE SNOW, WHICH
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY BLOWING SNOW MINOR AND VERY
LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A POTENTIAL NOREASTER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SE US FROM FRI-SAT, DEVELOPS
INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. THEY ALSO
DIFFER ON HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THIS WILL OCCUR. THEY ALL AGREE
THAT THE LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA, BUT HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN - WITH TIMING
RANGING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTINUED TO LIMIT POPS OVERLAND
(INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OFF THE MAINE COAST) SUNDAY-MONDAY TO AT
MOST CHANCE - WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MORE TO THE S/E WITH THIS RUN AND SOME
OTHERS SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE N/W. IF THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING, IT IS THAT THE NORTH IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
LOOKING AT AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL DATA, COASTAL
DOWNEAST HAS AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF THIS ACROSS THE NORTH GENERALLY LESS THAN
20% FOR THIS SYSTEM.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW RAPIDLY THE STORM
STRENGTHENS, YOU COULD SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER COASTAL
DOWNEAST AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF 35-40MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH GUSTS OF 30MPH OR LESS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTH, OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO RIGHT AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST. BECAUSE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FLUFFY SNOW,
THESE WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE AS WELL.
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE WINDS FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE, MINIMAL IF
ANY IMPACTS FROM TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS FROM HUL NORTH UNTIL 21Z OR 22Z,
THEN CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. VFR DOWNEAST
INCLUDING BHB/BGR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
TONIGHT...
VFR AREAWIDE WITH W WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...
VFR THROUGH 18Z, THEN MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH BY 0Z, BUT LIKELY REMAINING VFR BGR/BHB. W WIND 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE FROM HUL NORTH TO
PQI/CAR/FVE, WITH LIGHT SNOW. VFR BHB/BGR. W WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING IN
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW-N WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING. LLWS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN SNOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, NE WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN
SNOW, MOST LIKELY VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. N WINDS G25-40KT
POSSIBLE, STRONGEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MONDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. NW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
UPDATE...HAVE HOISTED AN SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 1PM
THURSDAY TILL 1PM FRIDAY. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THAT SCA
RUNS FROM 4PM THURSDAY TILL 7AM FRIDAY. HAVE HOISTED THE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS FROM 7PM THURSDAY
TILL 1PM FRIDAY. FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EXPECTED.
FOR THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, MODERATE ACCUMULATION OF
FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS FROM THE NW LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS REACHING LOW END GALE LEVELS
(ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE). SEAS 2-5 FT.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND PROBABLE
ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO PROBABLE ON THE WATERS FRIDAY.
A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GALES ARE LIKELY WITH
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, WITH
GALES PROBABLE ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM/JS
AVIATION...TF/PM
MARINE...TF/PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page