528
FXUS61 KCAR 290804
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
304 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- CHANCES FOR MAJOR IMPACTS FROM A NOREASTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES.
3) THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM A STORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF LABRADOR WILL WRAP
MODIFIED MARITIME AIR BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE
MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE, TO
MILLINOCKET, TO DANFORTH. THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
SOMERSET AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 TO AROUND
25 BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM A STORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REACH THE COAST
SATURDAY EVENING, CAUSING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR JUST
OFFSHORE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, WITH SURFACE PRESSURES
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 970MB ON MOST GUIDANCE BY 0Z MONDAY.
WHILE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
IMPACTS, THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FURTHER OFFSHORE LOW
WITH LESSER IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT (ABOUT 20
PERCENT) CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS,
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE ECMWF
AND ITS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF SUGGESTING OVER A HALF INCH OF
QPF FOR THE COAST AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH, WHILE ITS
ECMWF AI IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE. INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS AI
MODEL IS ALSO LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF ALONG THE COAST COMPARED
TO ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN, SHOWING NEARLY NOTHING. AI MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY MADE POSITIVE IMPROVEMENTS ON THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SO FAR THIS WINTER, SO THIS DOES
SLIGHTLY TILT THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A MISS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH, OFFSHORE WINDS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY COASTAL FLOODING THREAT ASSUMING THE CURRENT
GENERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK HOLDS. THIS REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT WITH POTENTIALLY MAJOR IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW. MVFR/IFR,
OCCASIONAL LIFR, CONDITIONS THEN OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AM: VFR. WNW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY PM TO MONDAY AM: VFR AT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR IN -SN CLOSER TO THE COAST AT
KBGR AND KBHB DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN OFFSHORE STORM. SMALL
(10 TO 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF MAJOR IMPACTS WITH IFR/LIFR OR
LOWER IN HEAVIER SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT BHB. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND 20 KT
GUSTING TO 30 KT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER IN
SOME SCENARIOS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
MONDAY PM/NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GUSTS AND SEAS FALL WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS
DIMINISH TO 2 FEET OR LESS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED (90 PERCENT CHANCE) WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE (30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MWS/CN
AVIATION...MWS/CN
MARINE...MWS/CN
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