883
FXUS61 KCAR 300100
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
800 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8:00PM UPDATE...MARINE HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. HAVE
EXTENDED THE INTRA-COASTAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL 1PM EST
FRIDAY. ON THE COASTAL WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TILL 1AM EST SATURDAY AM. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE
EXTENDED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TO 10AM EST SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE MOOSEHEAD REGION TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
00Z CAR RAOB. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A MID LEVEL BACKDOOR
MARITIME WARM FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP INVERSION
BETWEEN 820MB AND 700MB. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THE
MID LEVEL INVERSION WERE UP TO 30KT AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOOSEHEAD REGION WHICH
MATCHES LATEST HI-RES CAMS SOUNDINGS. NO OTHER CHANGES...
- CONTINUED CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.
- INCREASED SNOW RATIOS A BIT FOR SNOW TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
2) DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING IN WESTERN ZONES.
3) A LARGE AND STRONG STORM WELL OFFSHORE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRUSH
THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITS SOUTHWEST. VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AS OMEGA AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VALUES RISE, LIFTING
SOME MOISTURE, CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BUMPED UP SNOW RATIOS A BIT TO 20:1
FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON COLD TEMPERATURE SOUNDINGS. SLOWLY
DECREASES AS A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS GET A LITTLE ELEVATED THIS EVENING, WHICH
COULD BLOW/DRIFT SNOW AROUND A BIT IN THE NORTH. ANTICIPATING
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO FALL IN CROWN OF MAINE AND NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT AND
TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN WESTERN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...RELATIVELY GUSTY WINDS HELP TO CAUSE
SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN WESTERN MAINE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ROUGHLY AROUND 5 BELOW, WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 25 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. ANTICIPATING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOMORROW ABOVE ZERO. WILL STILL BE SOME
COLD WIND CHILLS AROUND 15 TO 20 BELOW, BUT AT LEAST ABOVE COLD
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. EXERCISE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS, BUNDLE UP,
AND PRACTICE PORTABLE HEATER SAFETY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A LARGE AND STRONG STORM WELL OFFSHORE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRUSH THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM WILL
TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. FROM THERE IT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SIZE OF ITS WIND FIELD, IT IS LIKELY
THAT STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORM
WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST REGION WITH SOME
FORECAST MODELS EXPANDING THE SNOW FIELD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION
AND OTHERS KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WOULD BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD BE AN
ISSUE GIVEN THE WIND. SWELL REACHING THE COAST FROM THE STORM MAY
REACH 3 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY, 5 TO 7 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND 7 TO 9 FT ON
MONDAY. ROCKS MAY BECOME ICY AND SLIPPERY FROM SPASH-OVER DUE TO THE
COLD CONDITIONS. OBSERVERS OF THE SURF ARE ADVISED TO KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT:
00Z UPDATE...HAVE TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS FOR TONIGHT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCE VSBY FROM -SN TO
BRING VSBY TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MDT OVERNIGHT HENCE THE
PROB30 GROUP. WINDS GENERALLY 280-310 5-10KT. TOMORROW EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO BKN VFR WITH INCREASING W-NW WINDS
OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. FOR SOUTHERN TERMS
TONIGHT EXPECTING VFR CONDITONS 270-300 WINDS 5-10KT. FOR
TOMORROW EXPECT BKN VFR CONDITIONS AND W-NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR/IFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT.
GUSTY W/NW WINDS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30KTS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. CLOUD CEILINGS DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY FLUFFY SNOW BLOWING AROUND
CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY. SOUTHERN TERMINALS GENERALLY VFR, WITH
SOME GUSTY W/NW WINDS, GUSTING AROUND 20KTS THIS EVENING, CLOUD
CEILINGS DO TREND DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERALLY STAY JUST
ABOVE VFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING
AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR. WINDS W/NW
AROUND 5-10 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR. W WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR. N WIND AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NORTH AND 20 TO 25 KT
OVER THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH. VFR OR MVFR SOUTH. N WIND AROUND 10 KT
NORTH AND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR NEAR THE COAST EARLY. N TO NW WIND
10 TO 15 KT NORTH AND 20 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST
EARLY, DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA-
COASTALS LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT OVER OUTER WATERS EXPECTED. WINDS
FROM THE W/NW.
A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM OFF THE COAST WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE AND THEN
POSSIBLY STORM ON SUNDAY. GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO
10 FT SUNDAY, 12 FT SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 FT BY LATE
MONDAY. CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL DRAMATICALLY DETERIORATE
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS THE FURTHER OFF THE COAST YOU
ARE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MB/ASB/JS
AVIATION...MB/ASB
MARINE...MB/ASB
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