524
FXUS61 KCAR 300734
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
234 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- THE STORM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. A MINOR SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND/OR WIND HAVE DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN
SOMERSET AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. LIGHT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
2) IMPACTS FROM THE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING
CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD
RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN
SOMERSET AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. LIGHT SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOMERSET AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS
FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 TO AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO.
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
IMPACTS FROM THE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING
CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD
RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH THE COAST, LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE MORE DECISIVELY
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW TRACK, WITH THE 0Z ECMWF AND EPS FINALLY
CAVING TO THE REST OF GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE QPF EVEN ON
THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON THE COAST, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND IMPACTS HAVE GREATLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. MARINE IMPACTS FROM GALE FORCE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
WITH THE OFFSHORE TREND OF THIS SYSTEM, AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
IS ANTICIPATED WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS VFR/MVFR, LOCAL IFR, WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS LOCAL MVFR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AM: VFR. WNW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY: VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE (20 PERCENT
CHANCE) AT KBHB WITH -SN SUNDAY NIGHT. N WIND 10 GUSTING TO 20
KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND 15 TO 20 GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KTS
AT BGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH 1 AM
SATURDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY, FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING LATE TOWARDS GALE FORCE LATE
ON SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO ROUGHLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FARTHER
OFFSHORE. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ003-
004-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MWS/CN
AVIATION...MWS/CN
MARINE...MWS/CN
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