063
FXUS61 KCAR 310726
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
226 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- AMOUNTS AND PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ALONG COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE
HAVE DECREASED AGAIN WITH A MORE OUT TO SEA TRACK
- SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH, WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW THIS MORNING AND 20
BELOW TONIGHT CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF
PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
- A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM NEXT WEEKEND TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW THIS
MORNING AND 20 BELOW TONIGHT CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR
FROSTBITE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
MODEST NORTHWEST WIND AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE
JUST SOUTH OF GREENLAND, AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW REMAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
SOMERSET AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS
WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 AND 20 BELOW THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH WIND CHILLS MODERATING TO BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND
10 ABOVE. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -10S ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS, AS
WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS, WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE LOWS BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND ZERO. WIND CHILLS AND/OR TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 BELOW
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND THE NEED FOR ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS, THE IMPACTS ARE NEARLY
THE SAME AND BASIC PRECAUTIONS MUST BE TAKEN TO AVOID FROSTBITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA IF OUTSIDE FOR LONGER THAN A FEW MINUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO
THE DOWNEAST REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A LARGE, INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST,
LESSENING IMPACTS FROM WINDS AND THE CHANCE OF ANY SNOW.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM, THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO DOWNEAST MAINE, RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE GREATEST WINDS TO AROUND 35
MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW GIVEN THERE IS NO CRUST ON THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK AND ITS LIGHT, DRY NATURE, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT EASILY
BLOWABLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE HIGH SNOWBANKS ALONG
ROADWAYS BORDERING OPEN FIELDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH A FEW ISOLATED WHITEOUTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING MAJOR IMPACTS. LITTLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW NO SNOW AT ALL. FAR
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WELL UNDER AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM NEXT
WEEKEND TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THIS WEEKEND AS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE ESE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL PRETTY SPLIT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME KEEPING IT MORE TO OUR SOUTH
AND OTHERS SHOWING IT CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA. FAR TOO EARLY
TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE AMOUNTS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM
ONLY REACHING A MODEST INTENSITY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MAINE NORTH OF HUL, INCLUDING PQI/CAR/FVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY: VFR. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH STRONGER WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 30
KTS FOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR AT BHB IN
LIGHT SNOW. PATCHY BLSN POSSIBLE. N WIND BECOMING NW LATE WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY...VFR. PATCHY BLSN POSSIBLE. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY, DIMINISHING TO 5
TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL MVFR FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL MVFR FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH -SHSN. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY, ALONG WITH
FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS, SEAS, AND FREEZING SPRAY INCREASE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A VERY LARGE STORM WILL BE TRACKING
WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD
WILL BRING HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE MODEST GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS AT 40NM OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET OVER THE OUTER
EDGE OF THE MARINE ZONES 40NM OFFSHORE, TAPERING CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ003-
010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...SM/MWS
AVIATION...SM/MWS
MARINE...SM/MWS
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