336
FXUS61 KCAR 020004
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A SMALL SNOW EVENT WITH LOCALIZED
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
2) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DOWNEAST.
3) FOR THE WEEKEND, LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER WEATHER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS FOR OUR
AREA, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST. A NORTHEAST
LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE MONTH, WHICH COULD
CAUSE OVERWASH AT VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THESE
EFFECTS WILL BE MOST NOTABLE AT THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
PEDESTRIANS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION ALONG SHORELINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY,
WITH PROBABLY WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE MAINE
COAST. THE UPPER LOW COULD BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT IT'S THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST THAT IS OF MORE CONCERN. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SURFACE LOW, 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST SHOT OF THIS
OCCURRING BEING DOWNEAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST OF BANGOR. THIS
IS NOT A STRONG SYSTEM BY ANY MEANS AND IT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT SAID, ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS
NOTABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY UP INTO THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS, AND AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT AS THIS
SYSTEM COMES WITHIN RANGE OF THE CAMS, THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE. DID GO HIGHER THAT NBM FOR POPS/QPF
DOWNEAST, BUT KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY LEVELS FOR NOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL FALL AS SNOW, AS A LOW DENSITY
SNOW AT THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FOR THE WEEKEND, LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER WEATHER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A VOLATILE SETUP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
TOWARD US, WITH BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN AS WELL.
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR GENERAL REGION, A LIKELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FORMS AND POTENTIALLY STALLS OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A
SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THIS CYCLOGENESIS HAPPENS AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW STALLS
OUT, BUT SOMEWHERE OVER MAINE OR POINTS EAST TOWARD PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND COULD GET A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWSTORM OUT OF THIS,
WITH BLIZZARD NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR AREAS A BIT TO OUR EAST TO GET THE HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONGEST WINDS, WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS HAPPENING JUST A BIT TOO
FAR EAST TO NAIL MAINE. HOWEVER, A NOTABLE MINORITY OF SOLUTIONS
ARE FURTHER WEST AND DO HIT MAINE HARD WITH SNOW AND WIND.
EITHER SCENARIO STRONGLY FAVORS SNOW OVER RAIN AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A POTENTIALLY HIGH CEILING,
MEANING A FOOT OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD HAPPEN. THAT
SAID, WE MAY ONLY END UP WITH SOME WIND AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IF THE STORM GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER TOO FAR EAST, AND THIS IS
WHAT THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING. IT IS
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING IN TOUCH WITH FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND
TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND. MANY TIMES THESE STORMS DON'T PAN OUT.
FOR EXAMPLE, MANY MODELS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR TODAY
(SUNDAY), BUT INSTEAD IT HIT NORTH CAROLINA WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW AND IS PASSING OFFSHORE AND MISSING US. WIND CHILLS COULD
ALSO BE A CONCERN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
COLDER THAN 20 BELOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT THE AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS TONIGHT. VFR MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
N TO NE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS
VCNTY KBHB TONIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR OR MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
USUAL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE
PRESENT. ABOUT A 50 PERCENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, AND A 25 PERCENT CHANCE AT BGR/BHB. VARIABLE
WIND 5 KTS OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR, WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW. NW WIND 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WIND
5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MVFR OR VFR. W/SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
LONG-PERIOD NE SWELL INCREASING TO AROUND 11 SECONDS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS 4 TO 10 FT WITH N WIND GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE TONIGHT.
NEXT SHOT AT SMALL CRAFT WINDS (ABOUT A 75 PERCENT CHANCE) COMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A NW WIND, BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, LOOKING
FOR CONDITIONS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND, LIKELIHOOD OF N/NW GALES WITH POSSIBILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...AES/TF/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TF
MARINE...AES/TF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page