431
FXUS61 KCAR 021056
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
556 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER
DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
2) WINTER STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR DOWNEAST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AFTER PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE DYING DOWN
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD OF THE SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A LARGE, LONG-PERIOD SWELL
WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE MONTH THIS
MORNING. WAVES UP TO 6 FEET ALONG THE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH
THE HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME OVERWASH AT TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE COAST SUCH AS SEAWALL ROAD AND
SCHOODIC POINT WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO POSE A RISK TO
PEDESTRIANS AND MOTORISTS SO EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR THE SEA THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINTER STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG UPPER TROF WILL BE DIVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE
IN THE WEEK. AT SOME POINT IT WILL CLOSE OFF, THOUGH GUIDANCE
DISAGREES ON HOW FAST AND WHERE THIS OCCURS. TOO FAR EAST AND THE
CWA MISSES OUT ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MAINE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEADING TO WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 30 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR DOWNEAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP TWD THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES IT LOOKS TO INDUCE A
WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THIS LOW WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT DROPS INTO THE AREA IT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
IS LIGHTING UP OVER DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA. STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITE LAYER ALSO LENDS CREDENCE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MONDAY...VFR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FVE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT CAR/PQI
THIS AFTERNOON, 50% AT FVE, AND 20% AT HUL. N/NW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS EARLY, DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT BHB DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. LIGHT WINDS, NEAR CALM.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. NW 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. WNW 5 KTS BECOMING SSW 5-10 KTS
FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALES EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASE BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BY MID-DAY TODAY. A
LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THIS MORNING, BECOMING S/SE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT TODAY, THEN DECREASING TO BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 25KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN COLD ADVECTION, AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. WINDS RELAX AND REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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