636
FXUS61 KCAR 161129
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION OF THE AFD
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES OVER THE NORTH.
2) THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING.
3) THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
REGION.
4) SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE COMMUTE NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVER THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SET UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT, AS A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY, WITH A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE NORTH, MAINLY NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO HOULTON
LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT LINE DOWN INTO THE BANGOR REGION AND FAR NORTHERN DOWNEAST
MAINE.
THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH AND INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK, BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
FOR NOW EXPECT SNOW FALL OF GENERALLY OF LESS THAN 1/2 AN INCH
WITH THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT FOR AROUND 1" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH WOODS AND SAINT JOHNS VALLEY REGION.
UPPED POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY BY BLENDING IN NAMNEST AND
CONSSHORT POPS WITH THE NBM.
THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO NO EXPECTATION
OF ANY BLOWING SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SHALLOW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING UNDER A BLOCKING HIGH IN
CENTRAL CANADA WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE, THE LOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH BY THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY
ON THIS LOWS POTENTIAL TO BRING US SOME SNOW WITH THE ECMWF
MAINTAINING A STRONGER AND MORE ROUNDED LOW NUDGING SOME SNOW
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM AND GFS CRUSH THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING OUR REGION DRY. THE NAM, HOWEVER, IS
CLOSER WITH THIS LOW INDICATING THAT SNOW MAY COME AS FAR NORTH
AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MAINE, THOUGH STILL SOUTH OF US. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS TO REACH US WITH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUING TO
STRUGGLE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS OF WHEN/IF A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY
REACH US UNDER THIS BLOCK. A NEW LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT THE BLOCK WILL HOLD THIS
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH KEEPING OUR REGION DRY SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND MAY BRING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
LONG RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND SUPPORTED BY A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
FROM THERE, THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN MISSING US TO THE SOUTH AND
PASSING US OUT TO SEA DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER, IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL THAT SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TRACKING BACK FURTHER
NORTH AS WE GO INTO LATE WINTER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE GFS
NOW TRACKING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND
TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
IS KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT,
BUT GIVEN ITS POTENTIAL AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MAJOR LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM, WE ARE MENTIONING IT NOW AS
SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT BY AROUND MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IT SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. THE QUESTION IS WILL MVFR MOVE IN AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW,
THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY - THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN
AROUND KFVE/KCAR LATE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT AT KFVE,
WHERE WINDS COULD BECOME OUT OF THE SE AT UNDER 10KT FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER PROBABLE AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS IN
LIGHT SNOW, EXCEPT FOR KHUL WHERE THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR OR LOWER. SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. S WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR NORTH. MVFR TO VFR SOUTH.
SW WIND LESS THAN 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY MVFR OVER THE FAR
NORTH. NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND 10 KT OR LESS.
MARINE
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL LIMIT WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 2 FT OR LESS.
NORTH WINDS MAY REACH SCA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. NE WINDS MAY AGAIN REACH SCA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REACH 4 TO 5 FT, MAINLY IN S SWELL FROM AN
OFFSHORE STORM, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MB/PM
AVIATION...MB/PM
MARINE...MB/PM
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