688
FXUS61 KCAR 162349
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 6:49PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. 00Z RAOB FROM CAR
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL REPEAT OF EARLY THIS AM. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
FALL TO THE DEW POINT BRINGING RHS CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY POTENTIALLY
PREVENT FREEZING FOG BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL. WILL CALL IT PATCHY FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY FROM THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
- 00Z TAF UPDATE...SEE BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH MINOR ICING ON ELEVATED
ROADWAYS.
2) CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DOWNEAST.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IF SNOW OCCURS.
3) CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IF THE SYSTEM OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY EVENING OVER
DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH MINOR ICING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST
AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL LIKELY
TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF THE KATAHDIN REGION. AS WARM
LIFTS THROUGH, THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL LOSE MOISTURE AND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE BANGOR REGION
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTO DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
ELEVATED ROADWAYS TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY DOWNEAST. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IF SNOW OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DOWNEAST.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IF SNOW OCCURS. MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES
KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST SOUTH OF US FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A NOTABLE MINORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO BRING IMPACTFUL
SNOW AS FAR NORTH OF BANGOR. THERE IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST AN INCH FROM BANGOR SOUTH, AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES FROM BANGOR SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A 55-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF NO SNOW FROM BANGOR SOUTH, WITH EVERYTHING
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER FOR
SNOW THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO FROM BANGOR, BUT IT CAN'T TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT. GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE NORTHERLY/SNOWIER
SOLUTIONS THAN THE GEPS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS OUR AREA, IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW
WITH NO RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IF THE SYSTEM OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM AFTER LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY COMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT ON WHETHER THERE WILL EVEN BE A SYSTEM IN THE REGION,
BUT A MINORITY OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES (ABOUT 30 PERCENT) DO HAVE A
RATHER STRONG NOR'EASTER IMPACTING THE STATE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHERN
TERMS TURNING BKN MVFR AFTER 09Z. FEW IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH
BCFG/FZFG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS OVER AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. IFR/MVFR
AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO -SHSN AND POSSIBLE FRZG
DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH POSSIBLE AM MVFR IN THE NORTH. NW
WIND 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WIND 5-15
KTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MOST LIKELY VFR IN
THE NORTH. DOWNEAST, INCLUDING BHB/BGR, COULD BE IFR IN SNOW IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH (ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR OR
LOWER), OR COULD BE VFR IF THE SYSTEM MISSES TO THE SOUTH (ABOUT
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STAYING VFR). N WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT SEAS BUILDING TO
NEAR 5FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.
SMALL CRAFT NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT NORTHEAST WINDS THEN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SEAS 2-5 FT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/TF/JS
AVIATION...21/TF/JS
MARINE...21/TF
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