883
FXUS61 KCAR 170556
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1256 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- CONFIDENCE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM NORTHERN DOWNEAST UP
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED ICY ROAD SURFACES.
2) CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DOWNEAST.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IF SNOW OCCURS.
3) CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IF THE SYSTEM OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM NORTHERN
DOWNEAST UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SOME ICY ROAD SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STAGNANT AIRMASS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS HAVE ALLOWED MOISTURE TO
ACCUMULATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED
SOUNDINGS UP TO 8K FT AND SOME PATCHY ICE FOG. A VERY WEAK OCCLUSION
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. ONCE ANY LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF,
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SUPERCOOLED
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY FROM NORTHERN DOWNEAST UP ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF ICE AND SOME ICY ROAD SURFACES. AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TAPER OFF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY DOWNEAST. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IF SNOW OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. GFS SHOWS A MUCH
QUICKER PROGRESSION THAN THE EURO AND CMC. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE TRIPLE POINT WILL INTENSIFY BY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE WEAKENING OCCLUSION WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THE SNOW
WILL LAST. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE NBM HAS THE SNOW ENDING
SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IF THE SYSTEM OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM AFTER
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY COMES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
LOT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHETHER THERE WILL
EVEN BE A SYSTEM IN THE REGION, BUT A MINORITY OF
MODELS/ENSEMBLES (ABOUT 30 PERCENT) DO HAVE A RATHER STRONG
NOR'EASTER IMPACTING THE STATE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TODAY...VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND MID MORNING
THEN IFR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS S AROUND 5 KT.
TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR. CHANCE FOR SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CENTRAL AND NORTH. SW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND AROUND 10 KT GUSTING
TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH POSSIBLE AM MVFR IN THE NORTH. NW
WIND 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WIND 5-15
KTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MOST LIKELY VFR IN
THE NORTH. DOWNEAST, INCLUDING BHB/BGR, COULD BE IFR IN SNOW IF
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH (ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR OR
LOWER), OR COULD BE VFR IF THE SYSTEM MISSES TO THE SOUTH (ABOUT
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STAYING VFR). N WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY, TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT NORTHEAST WINDS THEN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SEAS 2-5 FT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MB/ARL
AVIATION...MB/ARL
MARINE...MB/ARL
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