244
FXUS61 KCAR 180818
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
2) STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN OCEAN LOW EXITING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE, WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW
COULD EXPAND ACROSS MOSTLY SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, CURRENT INDICATIONS ONLY
SUPPORT LIGHT POSSIBLE TOTALS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH, SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS STILL INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, THEN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK STILL EXISTS. A WIDE
RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL EXISTS. THESE SOLUTIONS STILL
RANGE FROM A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, TO A STORM WHICH BARELY CLIPS THE REGION, TO THE MOST
SOUTHERLY TRACK SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHAT IMPACTS, IF ANY, FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA, HOWEVER, A 500MB VORT MAX WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS
IN THE REGION. SOME SUNSHINE AND THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH
WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY,
TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SNOW NORTH. MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH SNOW DOWNEAST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
GUSTS. SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
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