889
FXUS61 KCAR 182344
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT 00Z TAF PACKAGE
- CHANCE FOR SNOW BANGOR AND DOWNEAST TRENDING LESS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH MOST LIKELY SNOW STAYING SOUTH/WEST OF BANGOR AND
BAR HARBOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF SNOW OCCURS, TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
2) SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A NOR'EASTER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. IF
NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH (NOT LIKELY), SNOW AND WIND WOULD
OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF SNOW OCCURS, TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA COULD GRAZE OUR AREA
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP SNOW JUST
SOUTH/WEST OF A BANGOR/BAR HARBOR LINE. IF SNOW GETS INTO OUR
AREA, WORST CASE APPEARS TO BE 2-4 INCHES MAINLY BANGOR/BAR
HARBOR AREA, BUT BASED ON MODEL TRENDS, TRENDING QPF/POP LIGHTER
AND WE ARE GOING FOR JUST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
BANGOR/BAR HARBOR. NORTHERN MAINE SHOULD REMAIN DRY REGARDLESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A NOR'EASTER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IF NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH (NOT LIKELY),
SNOW AND WIND WOULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP OUR LAND AREA COOL AND
DRY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, A FEW BRING A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US IMPACTS IN TERMS OF SNOW
AND WIND. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PLACES FROM CAPE COD SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL VIRGINIA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN OUR AREA AT
RECEIVING WIND/SNOW FROM THIS STORM THAN US, BUT THIS IS STILL
PLENTY FAR OUT THAT MODELS COULD STILL SHIFT NORTH AND BRING
BIGGER IMPACTS TO US. BUT RIGHT NOW, ONLY ROUGHLY 10-20 PERCENT
OF SOLUTIONS BRING IMPACTFUL WIND/SNOW TO EASTERN/NORTHERN
MAINE. THAT SAID, MOST MODELS DO HAVE AT LEAST A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE, SO EVEN IF THE SYSTEM
DOESN'T BRING SNOW TO LAND, THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND, BECOMING NE ON FRIDAY, AT 5-10
KT. GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH N WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH, WITH ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR SOUTH INCLUDING BGR/BHB. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND
WHETHER LIGHT SNOW CAN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS BGR/BHB WITH A
STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. N WIND 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. N WIND 5-15 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SMALL POTENTIAL (25
PERCENT OR LESS) OF MVFR/IFR IF A NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER, BUT
MOST LIKELY (75 PERCENT CHANCE) VFR WILL PREVAIL. N WIND AROUND
10 KTS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE
NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS GO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THURSDAY
EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO THE E
THURSDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT NE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO.
LOW CONFIDENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS THEN. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT
UNTIL AROUND MONDAY, WHEN SEAS OVER 7 FEET ARE LIKELY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...TF/TWD
MARINE...ASB/TF
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