266
FXUS61 KCAR 192341
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
641 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT LATEST TAFS.
-ADDED IN SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT TRAVEL.
2) IMPACTS FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER A CHANCE FOR GREATER
IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND WIND REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL SET
UP TO OUR SOUTH, EAST OF MA. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NE, BUT
GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE
EASTWARD. THE QPF VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO
NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY IN THE WESTERN DOWNEAST REGION,
BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IMMEDIATE COAST COULD SEE
AROUND 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW, AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST
COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW. SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING COMMUTE, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST. COLD WINDS CHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT, IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE NORTH, AND NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IMPACTS FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER A CHANCE FOR GREATER
IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND WIND REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY, LEADING TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA THAT THE STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW ONSHORE TO THE DOWNEAST COAST, AND A SMALLER
PERCENTAGE OF THOSE MEMBERS BRING ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVEL SNOW
AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. INTERESTINGLY, UNLIKE WITH
THE LAST THREAT OF A STRONG LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WHERE AI
MODELS WERE CORRECTLY LOWER THAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF, IT IS
THE OPPOSITE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE AI MODELS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING QPF INTO THE COAST AND FARTHER NORTHWEST LOW
TRACK. FOR THIS REASON, THE SYSTEM STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED,
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
KBGR/KBHB AFTER 20Z FRI. N WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS. MVFR
KBGR/KBHB IN -SN. N WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH, OTHERWISE VFR. N WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.
SUNDAY: VFR. N WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AND -SN
CLOSER TO THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM.
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 10
TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. NW WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW TODAY, SHIFTING TO THE E BY
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GALES LIKELY (60-70
PERCENT CHANCE) OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND POSSIBLE (30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE) OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD EACH SUBSEQUENT MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS
AVIATION...ASB/TWD
MARINE...ASB/MWS
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