343
FXUS61 KCAR 202329
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
629 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-6PM UPDATE: A FEW HOURS AGO, WE HAD RAISED SNOW TOTALS FOR
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE, WE TRIMMED
DOWN SNOW TOTALS JUST A TOUCH FROM BANGOR NORTH BASED ON RECENT
MODEL TRENDS AND DELAYED BANGOR'S START TIME ABOUT AN HOUR TO
AROUND 9PM.
-SNOW CHANCES AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
-A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND A
GALE WATCH FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 8PM INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
2) STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SNOW LIKELY OVER DOWNEAST
MAINE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE, AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.
3) SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE
BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 8PM INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT, LIFTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
WILL RIDGE IN ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, IT WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE THROUGH BANGOR AND
DOWNEAST MAINE. RECENT TRENDS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARDS A HIGHER
QPF SOLUTION, WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
FOR BANGOR AND OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
COUNTY. SNOW RATIOS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 WILL YIELD
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST
MAINE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE START TIME WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AFTER ABOUT 9PM, WHICH
MAY IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING TRAVEL. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH
PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN 3Z/10PM AND 6Z/1AM. MOST
OF THE SNOW WILL FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT,
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN AND PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO FLURRIES
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A MODEST NORTH WIND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR DRIFTING OVER OPEN AREAS, BUT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SNOW LIKELY OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MONDAY EVENING
COMMUTE, AND POSSIBLY OVER EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EAST IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
STREAM. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO PHASE IN WITH IT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS STORM WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY CAN ENGAGE
WITH THE SYSTEM. STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH PHASING BACKED BY A CORE OF
DEEP COLD AIR DROPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A STRONGER LOW TRACKING FURTHER NORTH.
WEAK PHASING IN WHICH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY MISSES THE
SYSTEM, OR FAILS TO LOCK IN WITH THE TROUGH, WILL RESULT IN A
WEAKER LOW TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST MODELS WERE TRENDING
A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM EARLIER THIS
WEEK, BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TRENDING A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE DOWNEAST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND SOME SNOW MAY MOVE ONTO THE COAST
MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL
DOWNEAST AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF
BANGOR DURING THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY ACROSS OPEN AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
MONDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE
EASTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DOWNEAST. ANY SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY SPREAD SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS TRACK
WOULD FAVOR WARMER AIR COMING IN SOUTH OF THE LOW CHANGING SNOW OVER
TO A MIX OR RAIN DOWNEAST AND POSSIBLY A MIX OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE AREA.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS OVER THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY SLUSHY ROADS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME MINOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ROADS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY JUST BE WET THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT:
BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR AT BGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS
IN SNOW. WITH 0Z TAFS, DELAYED ONSET TIME AT BGR TO 0230Z. NE 5
TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS, STRONGEST FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
SATURDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT 14Z,
OTHERWISE VFR. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. N WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR ALL SITES. N WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND AROUND 5 KT NORTH, 10 KT INCREASING TO
15 KT SOUTH.
MONDAY...VFR ACROSS THE NORTH. MVFR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR OVER
THE SOUTH. NE WIND 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE NORTH AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER
THE SOUTH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT AT BHB.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR NORTH AND IFR SOUTH,
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. N WIND 10 TO 15 KT NORTH AND 15 TO
25 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR ALL SITES. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR NORTH. S WIND AROUND 5
KT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTERMOST WATERS FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FIRST
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN THE
REST OF THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG STORM TRACKING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS INCREASING
TO SCA SUNDAY THEN A STRONG GALE SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AND
POSSIBLY A STORM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO A WEAKER GALE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN A SCA EARLY TUESDAY
AND BELOW SCA LATE TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT SUNDAY NIGHT, UP TO 9 FT MONDAY AND
13 FT MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BACK OFF TO AROUND 5 FT BY LATE
TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MB/TF/MWS
AVIATION...MB/TF/MWS
MARINE...MB/MWS
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