239
FXUS61 KCAR 210848
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
348 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOWFALL ABOVE 6 INCHES DOWNEAST
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DOWNEAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND
STRONGEST WINDS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. BLOWING SNOW ALSO LIKELY.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS AND STRONGEST WINDS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. BLOWING
SNOW ALSO LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST OFFSHORE.
THE STORM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE STORM WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE GULF OF
MAINE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. LOOKING AT THE
ENSEMBLES, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA BUT THERE IS STILL A SPREAD IN MEMBERS WITH SOME
SHOWING THE LOW PASSING CLOSER AND SOME FARTHER OFFSHORE. TRENDS
IN THE TRACK WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WATCH AS IT WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR INLAND THE HEAVY SNOW WILL GET. A CLOSER TRACK TO OUR AREA
WILL MEAN GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WINDS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE GREATEST IMPACTS
REGARDLESS OF STORM TRACK WILL BE DOWNEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ALONG THE COAST. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE 10 TO 1 AS A RESULT OF A SUFFICIENTLY COLD VERTICAL
COLUMN WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY, FLUFFY SNOW. STILL, REDUCED SLRS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM AS A STRONG EASTERLY JET JUST BELOW THE
DGZ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CRYSTAL BREAKUP.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS STRONG 850MB
FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND BLOWING SNOW. A CHANCE OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXISTS WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG COASTAL DOWNEAST
WHERE SNOW RATES AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON STORM TRACK WITH A CLOSER SYSTEM TRACK
FAVORING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND A
FARTHER OFFSHORE SYSTEM TRACK FAVORING A LOWER CHANCE.
REGARDLESS, FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SO CANNOT YET BE DEFINITIVE
ON HOW IMPACTFUL THE STORM WILL BE BUT LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT STORM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
AREAS WHEREAS MORE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A
TURN TO RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND WARM AIR REACHES.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS, MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, THEN VFR LATER SUNDAY. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND AROUND 5 KT NORTH, 10 KT INCREASING TO
15 KT SOUTH.
MONDAY...VFR, BECOMING MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. MVFR, BECOMING
IFR, AND POSSIBLY LIFR LATE, OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASING NE WIND
10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTH AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT AT BGR/BHB.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR NORTH AND IFR,
POSSIBLY LIFR, SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. N/NW WIND 10 TO
15 KT NORTH AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KTS EARLY AT BGR/BHB.
TUESDAY...MVFR, BECOMING VFR ALL SITES. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR NORTH. SW WIND
AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING TO MVFR, IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. S/SE
WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
MARINE
HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS THEN IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY, THOUGH COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS THEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
STORM CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALES ON THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
OFFSHORE. WAVES PEAK AT 15 TO 20 FT MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ALSO POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
STRONG WINDS GET AND HOW HIGH WAVES WILL BE DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK BUT GALES OR GREATER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND STAY BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...SM/CN
MARINE...SM/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page