087
FXUS61 KCAR 220839
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
339 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCHES OVER THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST
REGION HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
-WINTER STORM WATCHES ADDED FOR SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK, CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT, AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.
-A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS FROM MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
-COLDER SOLUTION EXPECTED FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SNOW TO THE REGION.
POSSIBLE LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
3) A CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM FRIDAY WITH BOTH RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. THE LOW THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES WHILE TRACKING
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO REACH DOWNEAST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
THE INTENSE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MAINE MONDAY. SNOW WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WIND
AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE LOW WILL
THEN TRACK ALONG THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PERSIST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW. CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT
ACROSS HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DIMINISH
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT SNOW ESTIMATES IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA OF
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK, ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT, TO SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW TOTALS
DECREASE EVEN MORE NORTHWEST OF THE WATCH AREA. THESE TOTALS
COULD VARY UPWARD OR DOWNWARD DEPENDENT ON ANY CHANGES WITH THE
EVENTUAL STORM TRACK. LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITH ANY PERSISTENT MESO-SCALE SNOW BANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SNOW TO THE
REGION. POSSIBLE LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL UNDERGO SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE STORM WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH NEARLY ALL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ALL SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY STILL
MIX IN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE SECONDARY LOW
BECOMES PRIOR TO EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES. A STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW WHILE A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR
LESS. OVERALL, EXPECT LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM FRIDAY WITH BOTH
RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION CURRENTLY EXISTS, MORE THAN
HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A STRONG STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA WHICH IS A COMPELLING SIGNAL THIS FAR OUT.
CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW AS A RESULT OF A WARMER AIRMASS. WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
WILL SET UP IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH
THE ONSET OF SNOW. CONDITIONS STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY WITH EXPANDING SNOW OF INCREASING INTENSITY ALONG
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR, OCCASIONAL VLIFR, LEVELS MONDAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS MONDAY, NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LIKELY REGIONWIDE MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR NORTH AND IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR, SOUTH.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FIRST AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SN AND
+SN POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMS. -SN AND SN NORTHERN TERMS. N
WIND 10 TO 15 KT NORTH AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 45 KT EARLY AT BGR/BHB. WINDS SHIFTING OVERNIGHT
TO THE N-NW AND DECREASING. LLWS LIKELY ALL TERMS. BLSN LIKELY
AT SOUTHERN TERMS WITH PATCHY BLSN POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR, BECOMING VFR ALL SITES. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DRSN/BLSN POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR LATE AT SOUTHERN
TERMS. SW WIND BECOMING SE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING TO MVFR, IFR ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMS WITH -SN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY, POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10
KT.
MARINE
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY. SNOW
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT THEN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING,
THEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
STORM CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO 60 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST TO 50 KT ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS
13 TO 19 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH BELOW SCA WINDS AND SEAS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ006-011-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...SM/CN
MARINE...SM/CN
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