677
FXUS61 KCAR 090215
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCLUDED PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT.
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE MIXED PRECIP TYPES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL IMPACTS AND
POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW COMPACTION/MELT AND ROTTING OF RIVER
AND LAKE ICE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE MIXED PRECIP TYPES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATING TRAVEL IMPACTS AND
POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, AND COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
WETTER AND COLDER, WITH ELEVATED VALUES OF QPF, PREDOMINATELY IN
THE NORTH, DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT FROM THIS:
FIRST, THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION, BRINGING WARMER TEMPS WITH MORE WIND AND ICE BREAK UP.
IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A WARMER SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY, THUS MORE SNOWMELT ON TOP OF HEAVY RAIN. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WOULD BE MINOR FLOODING, BUT ALSO THE BREAK UP OF RIVER
ICE, CAUSING ICE JAMS.
SECOND, THE TRACK OF THE LOW GOES DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER
OF THE REGION, BRINGING MAJORITY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE
NORTH WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE HEADING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION.
SOME SNOW WOULD FALL ACROSS ST JOHN VALLEY AND FAR NORTH NORTH
WOODS. THE REST OF THE NORTH COULD EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE
ACCUMULATION WITH SLEET.
THIRD, THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH,
BRINGING MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
IN CENTRAL AREAS. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, THE HEAVY/WET SNOW
WOULD FALL IN THE NORTH WITH AMOUNTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS.
DUE TO THE HIGHER QPF, THE ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL REGION WOULD BE HIGH, CAUSING DANGEROUS TRAVEL. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST SOLUTION, KEEPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING.
NEVERTHELESS, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECT DURING AND AFTER THE EVENT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES DEPENDING ON WHICH
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW COMPACTION/MELT AND ROTTING
OF RIVER AND LAKE ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A MILD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO LARGE 500MB RIDGING RESULTING IN
ZONAL FLOW OVER MAINE. UNDER THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE BANGOR REGION
INTO THE DOWNEAST. AT NIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
32F BUT MOST STAYING >32F. MORE INFORMATION ON TEMPERATURES
WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATE NORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
THESE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST
WITH SIGNIFICANT COMPACTION IN THE NORTH. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
SNOW DENSITIES ARE IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WITH 25-35
PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. SNOW
SIGNIFICANTLY MELTS ONCE >33 PERCENT AS WE CALL THIS "RIPE"
SNOWPACK. IN HOUSE RESEARCH PRODUCT OF T+TD THAWING DEGREE HOURS
RANGES 500-700 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, 750-1000 FOR CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND 950-1100 FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. TYPICALLY >700 WE
BEGIN TO SEE ICE DECAY AND THEN >1000 RESULTS IN ICE MOVEMENT
DUE TO THERMAL BREAKUP. LATEST CALCULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT SUGGEST AROUND 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SWE LOSS FROM
THE AROOSTOOK RIVER BASIN POINTS SOUTHWARD TO DOWNEAST COAST.
CURRENTLY SWES ACROSS THE CWA ESTIMATED VIA NOHRSC ARE AROUND 2
TO 5 INCHES, WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ONGOING DUE TO WARM TEMPS AND
RECENT RAINFALL. WITH THIS FORECAST IN MIND, THE SNOW PACK IN
DOWNEAST MAINE AND BANGOR REGION WILL COMPLETELY ERODE IN MOST
AREAS, WHILE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHWARD DO NOT
LOSE ALL SNOW BUT WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REDUCTION.
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES, SNOW MELT AND INCREASING SUN
ANGLE WILL SUPPORT RIVER AND LAKE ICE ROT. BASED ON THE T+TD
NUMBERS EXPECTING GREATEST CHANCE OF ICE BREAKUP AND POSSIBLE
JAMS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE INTO THE BANGOR REGION EXTENDING INTO
THE UPPER MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER BASIN. NORTHERN MAINE WILL
EXPERIENCE MELT AND DECAY BUT NO ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS, VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR.
VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR HIGH CIGS OR SKC. SW WINDS 5-10KT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS POSSIBLY SWITCHING TO THE
N/NE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH IFR/LIFR, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND WIND DIRECTION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTY E/SE
WEDNESDAY, AND S WINDS THURSDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
FRIDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 5-15 KTS
MARINE
HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS RELAX ON
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 25KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 1-3FT. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS S-SW WINDS INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KT MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM. HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 1PM MONDAY TILL 8AM TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT SW
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
EXPECTED. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
8AM TUESDAY. SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS
A PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS FROM THE SW MONDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING
TO THE S BY TUESDAY, AND SHIFTING TO THE E BY WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DAILY HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY, MARCH 9
CARIBOU: FORECAST 47 F; RECORD 47 F SET IN 1998
HOULTON: FORECAST 50 F; RECORD 53 F SET IN 2012
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 51 F; RECORD 57 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 52 F; RECORD 59 F SET IN 2016
TUESDAY, MARCH 10
CARIBOU: FORECAST 45 F; RECORD 55 F SET IN 1977
HOULTON: FORECAST 55 F; RECORD 58 F SET IN 1977
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 55 F; RECORD 54 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 59 F; RECORD 62 F SET IN 1977
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/JS
AVIATION...ARL/JS/CN
MARINE...ARL/JS
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